The Biggest Trap in Crypto Right Now

Feb 14, 2025

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That said, let's jump in!

Bitcoin is moving as expected, pressing in the lower boundary of the $106K to $90K range.

An incoming low is still in the books, especially since Powell stated no lower rates in the near term. Based on timing, it would be the perfect scenario to have a last capitulation low before the trend resumes.

I’m mentally prepared for anything, to be honest. A quick dip as low as 88K is a reasonable target based on past behavior. That would create a strong buying opportunity.

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A Last Trap?

For short-term price action, I respect Eric Crown, and his analysis aligns with the idea of Bitcoin possibly making another low. In his latest YouTube video, he highlights several bearish signals for the short term:

The 2-day 5 vs. 21 EMA cross to the downside has historically led to a minimum correction to the 55 EMA, currently around $92,700. This target has not been hit yet, making further downside likely.

The 2-day stochastic remains to the downside as long as Bitcoin is below $102,000, adding confluence to the downside bias.

If Bitcoin closes below $93,000, it could invalidate the higher low structure, putting deeper downside in play.

That being said, if Bitcoin holds steady and closes above $98,500, it could confirm hidden bullish divergence, signaling a reversal. But until then, the correction scenario remains on the table.

Be sure to check out Eric Krown's full analysis for more insights:

Eric Krown Video

A Cycle Top

Looking at the longer timeframe, everything alignings well in terms of timing. Price is building a foundation for the next upward push. A move back to the top of the range would confirm that, and anything beyond that level would reinforce the continuation of the bull market.

On the flip side, the warning signal for a larger shift would be a move up that fails and reverses back down. If Bitcoin were to push higher, then roll over and break down in March or April, that would be concerning as the bull is losing steam. At that point, it would be a sign to take a much more defensive stance and consider the possibility of a cycle market top.

At this stage, that scenario doesn’t seem likely based on current price action. The overall structure continues to support the idea that Bitcoin is still moving higher within the 4-year cycle.

Given the macro environment and continued accumulation by institutions the expectation remains that Bitcoin will continue its uptrend toward the end of the year. However, as always, staying objective and prepared for all possible outcomes is key, especially this late in the cycle.

With that in mind, keeping an eye on the 10-month moving average remains important. The longer Bitcoin holds above that level, the stronger the case for continued upside. But any failure to hold that support in the coming months would be a signal to reassess expectations.