Why I'm Cutting Crypto Positions But Staying Patient with Gold

Bitcoin Roadmap

Nov 15, 2025

We’re finally seeing some turbulence in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ tech stocks, with AI names taking significant hits. This volatility feels like the natural conclusion to a rally that’s been running for 31 weeks without much interruption.

The path up through September and October was remarkably steady, but now we’re seeing the kind of choppiness that typically appears late in an extended move. Three consecutive red candles have appeared, bleeding out some of the enthusiasm that’s been driving this market higher.

Nevertheless, we are still trading above the 10-week moving average. In a bull market, that’s not a technical level you abandon lightly. But given how long this extension has been going, a declining phase would actually be healthy at this point.

The S&P 500 chart doesn’t tell the complete story because the index has been so concentrated in a handful of tech stocks. Many of those AI high-flyers are already down 30% to 40% from their peaks. Even some of the major tech names have pulled back substantially. They’ve already experienced their own resets.

Join +4300 subscribers

My read is that there could be another week or two of downward pressure to complete this correction. After that, I expect strength into year-end. This remains a powerful market with solid underlying momentum. A quick one or two week drop should be all that’s needed before we push hard into December.

I’m not worried about a major top forming here. Any decline, regardless of how sharp or deep it gets over the next few weeks, simply sets up the next move higher.
The key is not making any hasty decisions while the market is still pushing all-time highs. We want to see clear technical failures before taking defensive action.

Gold: Consolidation After a Powerful Advance

Gold jumped out of a fresh bottom, but I think we’ve likely seen the peak for a few weeks. We just witnessed a parabolic move and now the last big green candle already reversed a substantial portion of its gains, which suggests we’re entering a consolidation period.

Gold has covered tremendous ground with two distinct mini surges, and each one needed time to digest those gains.

The previous consolidation actually lasted 20 weeks, though it felt much quicker. Projecting a similar timeframe from this point gets us into March, with a potential breakout around April.

I want to maintain my position in gold despite this expected consolidation. There’s still real potential for continuation higher. Even if we see a sizable drop in January or February, I think we need to accept that as part of riding this major secular trend.

Join +4300 subscribers

Trying to trim positions around a bull market like this hasn’t served investors well historically. Just because we had this mini surge doesn’t mean we should get aggressive with position management. Let the consolidation play out, even if it means enduring some downside. Riding this secular trend has been rewarding and I believe gold has much more to give us going forward.

Silver nearly touched a new all-time high before pulling back, which shows remarkable strength. Normally in a major topping situation after a surge, silver would have already dropped into the low $40s. Instead, it’s holding up well.

While I think this advance will probably dip below the level from two weeks ago, the price action tells me silver wants to consolidate most of this strength over time rather than collapse.

Bitcoin: Concerning Technical Deterioration

This is the difficult part of the update. Bitcoin’s price action has been rough, and we’re still waiting for a weekly low to form while the market keeps pushing lower levels.

I’ve mentioned many times that Bitcoin trading below the 50-week moving average would be the first bearish sign to watch. Right now, that level sits at $103K, while Bitcoin is currently trading around $96K. That’s a meaningful technical break.

I also preferred to see Bitcoin hold $98K as my last line in the sand. When that level failed, I reacted by selling half of my Bitcoin allocation and my entire Ethereum position. Yesterday the price dropped as low as $94K, which is when my oversold Sniper indicator flashed a buy signal. I took back a position anticipating a bounce.

But here’s the critical distinction: I’m approaching this as a counter-trend move. That means we could get rejected at $98K or $107K again. I’m starting to manage my holdings with more flexibility now.

My goal has always been to maintain crypto exposure as long as Bitcoin remains in a bull phase. Now, due to these technical breaks, I need to acknowledge the reality and adjust allocations accordingly. I’d prefer to take short-term trades, getting in and getting out, until the broader trend proves bullish again.

Join +4300 subscribers

The most troubling aspect is that we might now be looking at a peak in Bitcoin’s four-year phase. The monthly chart shows Bitcoin trading well below the 10-month moving average. We don’t want to see a monthly close down here, and we still have two weeks before that happens.

The Four-Year Phase Peak Concern

There’s no way to sugarcoat this reality: there’s a very high chance that the 35-month candle high represents the peak of Bitcoin’s four-year phase.

It’s not over yet, of course. Bitcoin could recover from here, form its weekly low, and bounce sharply. After a pullback, if it makes a new all-time high, then the phase extends and the four-year view remains intact.

The weekly chart does look similar to the last two weekly advances, so the bull narrative is still potentially in play. This is especially true if equity markets can recover and keep pushing higher. That’s why I’m keeping half of my Bitcoin allocation and remaining alert for re-entering in case the trend favors bulls again.