Why Bitcoin Can't Keep Up With the S&P 500 (And What It Means)
Bitcoin Roadmap
Bitcoin sits around $76,000 after pushing off the low $60,000 lows from a few months ago. On the surface, it looks like the worst is behind us. But when you zoom out and compare what crypto is doing versus what equities are doing, the picture gets a lot less comforting.
The S&P 500 has now followed through on four big weeks of all time high territory. Semiconductors look like they’re going into a blowoff move. NASDAQ is at all time highs alongside it. Every major equity index is punching through to fresh records.
And Bitcoin? It’s sitting closer to its recent lows than its recent highs.
That’s weak action. And for the rest of the crypto space, it’s even weaker.
The Divergence Tells the Real Story
Look at Bitcoin dominance. Outside of a couple of wicks, we’re at highs going back to August of last year. That’s not a healthy crypto market. That’s capital concentrating into the one asset people still trust while everything else bleeds.
Back in February, I wrote that “this move feels like a counter trend rally back toward the 50 week moving average before finding a lower high and rolling over.” That’s exactly the structure we’re watching unfold right now, just on a slower timeline than I initially expected.
If this was already the start of a new bull phase, Bitcoin would have followed equities by now. The macro setup gave it every excuse to rip.
Sailor is still buying
ETF inflows are still happening
Equities are at all time highs
If the bear market was over, Bitcoin would be back above $100,000 already, maybe even retesting $125,000.
Instead, it’s barely managed to climb back to $76,000.
This isn’t a bull market response. This is sellers stepping aside temporarily while buyers test the waters. The longer Bitcoin spends consolidating up here without a real breakout, the more inevitable the next leg down becomes.
What the Counter Trend Actually Looks Like
I still think there’s some upside left in this current move. Bitcoin has threatened the $80,000 area now, and I think the target is probably somewhere between $80,000 and $85,000 before it rolls over.
Here’s what would change my mind. If Bitcoin can push to $85,000, put in a short term high, pull back, then come back in May and break above $85,000 with conviction, that starts telling a different story. That’s the kind of structure that would force me to reconsider the bear market thesis.
But until that happens, the historical comparison is hard to ignore.
In the last cycle, after the initial big multi week decline of 40% to 50%, Bitcoin staged a meaningful counter trend rally over a similar three to four month window. That rally looked convincing. It pulled people back in. Then it rolled over and dropped toward the actual cycle lows.
This October to April period doesn’t fit the typical washout you need to fully reset sentiment and start a new bull phase. The bear market signature is usually messier and more drawn out than what we’ve seen so far.
Why a 75% Drawdown Probably Isn’t Coming
A lot of people are still talking about a retracement down to $30,000. I don’t think that’s where we’re heading.
This cycle has been different in important ways. We never got the speculative blowoff top that defined previous cycles. Retail never fully showed up. Institutional buying through ETFs and treasury companies has provided consistent demand throughout the decline.
That changes the math on how deep this can go.
I’m thinking the eventual low is more likely around the $50,000 level. There’s a major moving average that’s been tested in the past sitting in that zone. If Bitcoin rolls over from here and continues the bear market decline through the summer, taking out the recent $60,000 lows and pushing into the low $50,000s feels like the right target.
That’s where the four year cycle math starts working again. That’s where active portfolios should consider getting back to a meaningful position. Not trying to time the exact bottom, but accepting that we’ve done enough damage to start building toward the next phase.
Altcoins Have Unfinished Business
Going through the rest of the space, nothing’s exciting. Ethereum is probably behaving better than most everything else, but that’s not saying much. Solana is barely off its lows while Bitcoin is up 15% and equities are at all time highs.
These are highly volatile assets that should be ripping in this kind of risk on environment. Instead, they’re crawling.
Total 3, the metric that tracks all altcoins outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, looks technically lower. Stablecoin growth has been masking some of the weakness, but strip that out and the picture looks worse than the headline numbers suggest.
That said, there are still pockets of strength worth tracking. I cover the strongest setups in the Top Altcoin Playbook, and some of these names have been holding up better than the broader market. A few have actually put together respectable moves through this period.
But this isn’t an environment where you can buy and forget. You have to respect your stop losses and stay disciplined about cutting positions when momentum fades. The moment a coin loses its setup, it gets removed from the watchlist. That’s how you avoid holding the bag while everything else around it bleeds.
There’s still a lot of unfinished business in altcoins overall. The last leg of this bear market decline could be significant for the smaller caps, and forcing trades in the wrong names isn’t going to reward you.
I’ve been saying for over a year now that you don’t want to be sitting passively in altcoins through this. That hasn’t changed. If anything, the case for being selective and tactical has only gotten stronger.
What Comes Next
This is the patience phase. The hardest part of any bear market isn’t the initial drop. It’s the prolonged middle period where price action stays choppy, narratives keep flipping, and you’re trying to figure out whether the bottom is in or whether there’s another shoe to drop.
Right now, the evidence still points to another shoe. The divergence with equities is too significant to ignore. The altcoin weakness tells you capital isn’t flowing into risk crypto. The four year cycle structure suggests we have more time to work through.
But the setup ahead is the one we’ve been building toward. A decline into the low $50,000s would be the moment to start really accumulating. Not trying to call the exact bottom, but getting positioned aggressively enough to participate fully in whatever comes next.
The cycle hasn’t ended. It’s still working through its declining phase. And the best opportunities almost always show up when most people have given up trying.
Thanks for reading!
PS... A reminder that the BSI waitlist is still open. The indicator just opened its first live position this week. If you want to follow the signals in real time, grab your spot now at bsi-waitlist.netlify.app.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
🟩 Panic Drop Podcast : on your favorite streaming app