While Crypto Lost $2.6B, This Sector Gained Ground
Bitcoin Roadmap
Bitcoin has broken down again, and it’s not looking good.
Over $2.58 billion in crypto liquidated in the past 24 hours. Let me put that in perspective:
FTX Collapse (November 2022): $1.75 billion
Luna/UST Collapse (May 2022): $1.5 billion
The infamous crash last October: $19 billion+
Bitcoin has now closed its third consecutive month below the 10-month moving average.
Given that I think the four-year peak is already in, this sets up a challenging outlook for the rest of the year.
What History Tells Us
Looking at previous major patterns, once the top was in place, it typically took around a year before a bottom formed. If we measure one year from the October 2025 high, the low should occur somewhere around October 2026.
But Bitcoin won’t trade down in a straight line. Plenty of rallies will occur between now and then. Bear market bounces can surge 40% or more in a short time, pulling in believers who think the bottom is already in. That’s how bear markets work. They convince you multiple times that it’s over, then continue lower.
Possible Paths Forward
Larry Williams, one of the most accomplished traders in history, is calling for a similar structure:
Declining phase continues through early 2025, bottoming around March (first decisive entry point)
Significant rally develops through late spring into early summer (substantial move that convinces many the bottom is in)
Summer rally gets sold off heading into mid-year
Late summer through early fall consolidation creates a range (base-building phase and second major entry point around September or October)
Final rally into year-end takes Bitcoin to new yearly highs
His Grayscale Bitcoin Trust analysis shows the exact accumulation and distribution pattern he’s identified across decades of trading commodities and equities.
My Current Approach
I sold most of my Bitcoin allocation after it broke below the 50-week moving average. That was the signal.
I’ve opened a few small Bitcoin trades since then, but always with a stop loss to minimize risk. My allocation is now sitting at just 2%, down from the 15% I held before.
To get back to that 15% level, I need to see clear confirmation the market is ready to turn. That could align with Larry’s timeline, or it could take until later in the year. The key is letting price action guide the decision rather than hoping for a specific outcome.
For now, the stance is defensive. Wait for the structure to repair itself before getting aggressive again.
Gold: Signs of a Major Top
Gold looks like it's hitting a major top after two years of strong gains.
We’ve been expecting a major top at some point. Now it looks like we have it.
This signals a major top for now. Not the end of the secular advancing market, but a top that probably requires significant consolidation and base-building.
I’m not changing allocations. I already took profits on gold and silver gradually on the way up. Since this remains a secular advancing market, I want to maintain a solid position.
Looking at the monthly view, we only broke out in March 2024. It’s been barely 22 months. These secular advancing markets typically run around 7 years (86 months). We’re in the first half of that structure.
Looking out about 48 months from that November 2022 low, I can see us pulling back, then forming the mid-point around September / November, then resuming the secular advance.
S&P 500: Sector Opportunities
The S&P 500 pulled back this week after barely pushing through all-time highs, but the structure remains intact. For now, the setup still favors upside. I remain fully invested.
The economy feels resilient. Inflation isn’t dropping, but it’s not rising either. We’re in a decent place fundamentally.
The concern comes from the Federal Reserve. The market is accepting that the Fed probably won’t be accommodative this year. With the economy showing no major weakness and inflation at uncomfortable levels, that’s weighing on sentiment.
Valuations are relatively high. That’s not the best environment for stocks to power higher. But we have momentum and trend behind us. The weekly structure shows we’re in a clear advancing market.
Where I’m Finding Value
My focus has been on buying undervalued sectors like consumer staples and software stocks. Consumer staples are up 7.5% this year while the S&P is up just 1.3%.
I think consumer staples will break out in 2026 and continue outperforming the S&P. That’s why I’m positioned in PEP, KO, and PG.
Another sector I’m watching closely is software. Leaders like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Veeva are down over 50% from their highs over fears “Agentic AI” will automate their core functions.
But history shows markets repeatedly declare industries “dead,” only to realize the leaders adapt.
SaaS giants are already adapting. They’re moving from per-seat pricing to outcome-based models.
Salesforce charges $0.10 per AI action through Agentforce. If an AI agent does 5x the work of a human, revenue actually doubles per unit of work.
ServiceNow charges 30%+ premiums for AI features, building complex “Agentic Fabric” workflows that startups can’t easily replicate.
Markets underestimate switching costs and how quickly incumbents adapt. The SaaS pivot to AI agents may actually make these platforms more valuable, not less.
That’s why I’ll keep buying quality tech when the market sells off.
Thanks for reading.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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