Waiting for Uptober
The structure we’re seeing for Bitcoin is very clear, and we can’t ignore the fact that all these recent highs are forming lower than the previous ones.
Yes, we did see a break in the weekly downtrend, but for me, the July high remains the key level to watch. Until we break above that, it’s too early to call it an uptrend.
Can the downtrend break in October?
I’d love to be surprised, and I’d love for this structure to break in October, but the price action is not suggesting that’s going to happen just yet. Until the 70k level is taken out, we can't really expect much, even though it's October and expectations are always high for this month. Right now, it’s not giving me that bullish vibe.
There’s a small statistical hope for October. Historically, Bitcoin tends to hit its low early in the month—around 10 days in. If you exclude 2012, that average drops to just 4 days. During periods of weekly uptrends, the low usually forms around day 7.
This suggests that Bitcoin is more likely to bottom out early in the month.
On the flip side, the high tends to come later, with the average peak happening around the third week, typically around October 21st. In macro uptrends, it often shifts a bit later, to around the 23rd.
When comparing the usual October lows within the first 7–10 days and the highs toward the later part of the month, it might be too early to count October out. If bullish momentum continues, surviving the first 10 days could set the stage for a stronger second half of the month.
We saw a drop from $66K to $60K, a 10% decline, so we may see that upward reaction. I wouldn’t be surprising if Bitcoin bounced to $64K or $65K. The key question is: can it exceed $66K? If it does, it changes the outlook a bit. Any move above the highs from July—around $70K or higher—would be very bullish, suggesting new multi-month highs. That would indicate a reversal, with the possibility of a higher low during the next decline, signaling the beginning of a long-term trend shift.
While this might occur late in the year, it would still set up the sideways path I’ve discussed before—a path I think is the most logical right now. This would involve building momentum within the current range and breaking the downtrend without reaching all-time highs just yet. Do check out all the paths I discussed in my previous update:
A potential move to $70K or $71K in the coming weeks, followed by a reversal, could set the stage for a November-December move toward all-time highs. This may then trigger a final shakeout, followed by a local low, and then another upward move. It would create a series of higher lows and higher highs.
The bullish path is still an option, but I can't fully support it because the pattern hasn't broken yet. I can’t get behind the idea of an up October and a new all-time high move in October or November, even though many believe it could happen. Bitcoin is known for surprising us, and if it does, we'll embrace it. But for now, it’s more realistic to follow the price action.
I believe that Bitcoin, during the bull phase of its four-year cycle, is unlikely to consolidate for more than nine months, with that period ending by December. If the current base formation holds through the remaining months, that could mark the end of the consolidation. From there, we might see a move toward the four-year cycle high, expected in the third or fourth quarter of next year.
So yeah, in the short term, multiple paths remain in play, but I still feel confident about the four-year cycle and the big move ahead. This current structure could serve as a solid foundation for the final phase of the cycle to launch from.
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Written by Timothy Assi, a popular investor on eToro.
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