The Range Is Tightening. Something Big Is Coming
Bitcoin Roadmap
The S&P 500 has been stuck in a tightening range for weeks now, and I think whatever direction it breaks is going to define the intermediate term picture for everything, including Bitcoin.
The range is getting narrower and narrower, and when that kind of compression builds up, the resolution tends to be violent. The question is which direction.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the air right now. The recent military strikes against Iran have added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to an already fragile environment. Tariff concerns remain. Shutdown risks keep resurfacing. The Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority is a wildcard. Inflation numbers have been running hotter than expected, which means the Fed isn’t going to be cutting rates anytime soon.
Any one of these could be the catalyst that tips the range to the downside. Or, as we’ve seen before, a resolution on geopolitical fears can produce a shakeout that actually sets up the next leg higher.
That’s the frustrating part about where we are. Both outcomes are on the table.
While the short term picture remains uncertain, I’ve been using this weakness to layer into positions I’m bullish on over the long run. Companies like Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, and Mastercard have been getting hit by the Agentic AI panic, where the market has convinced itself that AI agents are going to put every software and payments company out of business.
I think that’s overblown. These are companies with decades of compounding, massive switching costs, and fundamentals that keep improving quarter after quarter. History shows us that markets repeatedly declare industries “dead” only to realize the leaders adapt. We saw the same thing during COVID when everyone said commercial real estate and banks were finished. That narrative didn’t age well.
So while the range plays out, I’m buying in layers. Not trying to call the exact bottom. Just adding slowly at prices I’m comfortable holding for years.
Gold Continues to Defy Expectations
Precious metals remain incredibly strong. Gold is closing at another new all time high on a monthly basis, adding roughly $400 from the previous monthly close. This move is still stretched, and when you look at the monthly chart, it’s almost entirely green candles for the past two years.
I’m balancing two realities here. First, metals remain in a massive secular bull market. Second, after the kind of vertical move we’ve seen, consolidation or a pullback is overdue.
Early February I wrote: “This signals a major top for now. Not the end of the secular advancing market, but a top that probably requires significant consolidation and base building.” That view hasn’t changed.
I’ve already taken profits on the way up and trimmed to a level I’m comfortable holding through volatility.
Silver has recovered nicely from the December lows but carries more downside risk if metals enter a correction. Gold might pull back 15% to 20% in that scenario, but silver could lose significantly more. That’s why I prefer to hold gold for stability right now.
The long term cycle for gold typically runs about 8 years, and we’re only around 3 years in. Even with a correction, the bigger picture remains constructive through the end of the decade.
Bitcoin: Still No Bid
Bitcoin remains weak. There’s simply no buying interest showing up at these levels. After multiple attempts to bounce, we keep sliding back toward support.
We’re now looking at five consecutive red monthly candles. Historically, that only happens during the declining phase of the four year cycle.
As I mentioned in my recent analysis: “The four year cycle low for Bitcoin isn’t really due until around Q3. That means there’s still plenty of road ahead.”
At some point between now and the eventual cycle low, we're going to get a significant counter trend rally. That's just how bear markets work. They don't go straight down.
If that rally carries Bitcoin back to $80,000, the narrative shifts fast. The bulls come out in full force. Social media fills up with "I told you so" posts. People start calling the bottom. But if that move stalls anywhere near the $100,000 level and rolls over, that's exactly how bear markets have always played out.
One big drop, a rally that feels real enough to pull people back in, and then the final leg lower into the actual cycle low. The people who bought the bounce end up selling the next decline at the worst possible time.
I keep referencing the four year cycle because it's the framework everything else builds on. If you want to understand it from first principles, with complete data on every cycle, diminishing returns, bear market traps, and what the declining phase typically looks like, I put it all in a free one page cheat sheet.
Download it here:
My approach remains the same: respect the trend until the evidence tells you otherwise. For Bitcoin, it means being patient and waiting for the counter trend move to use as an opportunity to rebalance.
The real opportunities in 2026 are still ahead of us. The people who perform best through periods like this aren’t the ones making aggressive bets in the middle of uncertainty. They’re the ones who stay disciplined, manage their risk, and let the market come to them.
Thanks for reading.
PS… Bear markets crush traders who don't have a system. They buy the bounce too early, hold too long, and give it all back.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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