The $100K Line in the Sand For Bitcoin (And Why Ethereum Looks Interesting)
Good weekend everyone, diving into what's happening across crypto right now. Yesterday was quite the ride. Bitcoin dipped all the way down to $103,500 before bouncing back to $104,700, and we saw $200 million get liquidated from the crypto market. Even more telling, BTC dominance hit 65%, a new local high, showing that capital is flowing directly into Bitcoin while other assets get left behind (again).
Good weekend everyone, diving into what's happening across crypto right now. Yesterday was quite the ride. Bitcoin dipped all the way down to $103,500 before bouncing back to $104,700, and we saw $200 million get liquidated from the crypto market. Even more telling, BTC dominance hit 65%, a new local high, showing that capital is flowing directly into Bitcoin while other assets get left behind (again).
The long term chart is still looking really nice. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the technical picture at the moment, and the overall structure looks fine.
Here's what I'm comfortable with: A test to the $101,000 level would be within normal parameters.
It's not what I expect or want to see, but it's within the realm of possibility in a rising market. That would serve as a major reset, a double bottom test, and from there I'd expect bullish continuation.
Why this level matters so much: We just came off a previous decline that served to reset all the sentiment from the initial euphoria. That decline was actually important and healthy because it cleared out weak hands over an extended period. Then we had the surge back up to test the highs, which is normal, and it's also normal to pull back and consolidate right below that all-time high level in preparation for the next move up.
Everything is really in place for a continuation of this trend higher. There should be no excuses now.
The Critical Threshold
This is where I need to be completely clear about my strategy. Any breakdown below $100K that takes out the previous major low would be where I begin to become defensive.
Not necessarily that the entire cycle has peaked, but that we might spend the remainder of the summer stuck in a wider range. That range could be fairly broad, maybe all the way down to the $88K-$89K level, and we could chop in that area through the summer before continuing higher.
Here's my exact plan: Anything below $100K right now is short term bearish and I would want to reduce my position by around 50% as a result. Simply put, if we break below that level, it indicates a downtrend.
When you have a pattern like this, that typically tells you the intermediate trend is in decline. You very rarely see a market break below a major support level but still be in an uptrend on the larger timeframe.
Two scenarios if we break $100K:
Scenario 1: We start trading back down towards the $88K level, as I mentioned before. That could become a trading range for an extended period.
Scenario 2: This could indicate we have a massive double top and the 4-year cycle has peaked. I don't think this has a high probability, but it's something I've been considering for the last couple of weeks, which is why I've also reduced some of my Bitcoin positions last week.
Portfolio Management Strategy
I know it's difficult to hear or believe the idea that there's a possibility this is a big double top, but major tops do come from euphoric periods, and we're certainly in one of those. I put the odds of something like that at pretty low, but breaking below $100K certainly increases the possibility.
If we do break below $100K and then still move up, I'd have to buy that position back, probably at higher levels. So it's a choice for you if we get below $100K. If you want to just ride it out, that's your strategy. But from a technical perspective, I have to follow the rules, and they provide an edge.
What I'm Really Expecting
I'm still very, very bullish on this chart and I think we can hold this current level. Maybe a little bit of a shakeout down to the low $100K level, but this really should be almost done now in a bullish market.
Bitcoin should blast out of this level and make a run back to the all-time high. My main scenario: Bitcoin moves up to maybe the $120K level or so, following prior pattern behavior. One more surge up in August to make the peak of this phase.
The key level right now: Once we get back above the highs from May at $112K, the sentiment will flow rapidly again. I think you'll see large holders stop selling because we've cleared key levels, that double top gets off the table again, and there'll be more appetite for institutions to follow MicroStrategy and other treasury buying programs.
With price above $112K-$113K, over the next few months all the large holders that have been selling should be exhausted. Any holders that have been considering selling won't be encouraged anymore because the fear of this market topping with a double top is significantly reduced.
Ethereum: The Narrative is Shifting
Quick look at Ethereum, which is my second biggest position right now. The ETH/BTC chart looks really good, holding up nicely and hasn't broken down with Bitcoin's recent weakness. It's showing relative strength.
This makes sense. Stablecoins are on everybody's mind and in the news flow, which helps Ethereum's narrative. The ETHUSD weekly chart shows some really big moves building up.
Will Ethereum test $2150 before breaking $2700? I think its fate is still tied to what Bitcoin does, but if we're heading higher like I expect, this would lead to an outsized move to the upside.
The new narrative: We've clearly shifted from the meme coin and Solana narrative to "institutions are serious, they want to tokenize the world, stablecoins are here" and that's going to be mostly on Ethereum.
This can cover substantial ground over a short period of time and continue the ETH/BTC uptrend that looks like it began from the April lows.
Final Thoughts
Stay flexible on altcoins and don't fall into the bag holding trap when narratives shift.
The setup is there for explosive moves higher once Bitcoin clears the previous highs. But we need to respect the key levels and be ready to adjust.
Stay patient, don't get chopped up by daily noise, and keep your eye on what really matters.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend.
PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?
Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators that help you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
The long term chart is still looking really nice. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the technical picture at the moment, and the overall structure looks fine.
Here's what I'm comfortable with: A test to the $101,000 level would be within normal parameters.
It's not what I expect or want to see, but it's within the realm of possibility in a rising market. That would serve as a major reset, a double bottom test, and from there I'd expect bullish continuation.
Why this level matters so much: We just came off a previous decline that served to reset all the sentiment from the initial euphoria. That decline was actually important and healthy because it cleared out weak hands over an extended period. Then we had the surge back up to test the highs, which is normal, and it's also normal to pull back and consolidate right below that all-time high level in preparation for the next move up.
Everything is really in place for a continuation of this trend higher. There should be no excuses now.
The Critical Threshold
This is where I need to be completely clear about my strategy. Any breakdown below $100K that takes out the previous major low would be where I begin to become defensive.
Not necessarily that the entire cycle has peaked, but that we might spend the remainder of the summer stuck in a wider range. That range could be fairly broad, maybe all the way down to the $88K-$89K level, and we could chop in that area through the summer before continuing higher.
Here's my exact plan: Anything below $100K right now is short term bearish and I would want to reduce my position by around 50% as a result. Simply put, if we break below that level, it indicates a downtrend.
When you have a pattern like this, that typically tells you the intermediate trend is in decline. You very rarely see a market break below a major support level but still be in an uptrend on the larger timeframe.
Two scenarios if we break $100K:
Scenario 1: We start trading back down towards the $88K level, as I mentioned before. That could become a trading range for an extended period.
Scenario 2: This could indicate we have a massive double top and the 4-year cycle has peaked. I don't think this has a high probability, but it's something I've been considering for the last couple of weeks, which is why I've also reduced some of my Bitcoin positions last week.
Portfolio Management Strategy
I know it's difficult to hear or believe the idea that there's a possibility this is a big double top, but major tops do come from euphoric periods, and we're certainly in one of those. I put the odds of something like that at pretty low, but breaking below $100K certainly increases the possibility.
If we do break below $100K and then still move up, I'd have to buy that position back, probably at higher levels. So it's a choice for you if we get below $100K. If you want to just ride it out, that's your strategy. But from a technical perspective, I have to follow the rules, and they provide an edge.
What I'm Really Expecting
I'm still very, very bullish on this chart and I think we can hold this current level. Maybe a little bit of a shakeout down to the low $100K level, but this really should be almost done now in a bullish market.
Bitcoin should blast out of this level and make a run back to the all-time high. My main scenario: Bitcoin moves up to maybe the $120K level or so, following prior pattern behavior. One more surge up in August to make the peak of this phase.
The key level right now: Once we get back above the highs from May at $112K, the sentiment will flow rapidly again. I think you'll see large holders stop selling because we've cleared key levels, that double top gets off the table again, and there'll be more appetite for institutions to follow MicroStrategy and other treasury buying programs.
With price above $112K-$113K, over the next few months all the large holders that have been selling should be exhausted. Any holders that have been considering selling won't be encouraged anymore because the fear of this market topping with a double top is significantly reduced.
Ethereum: The Narrative is Shifting
Quick look at Ethereum, which is my second biggest position right now. The ETH/BTC chart looks really good, holding up nicely and hasn't broken down with Bitcoin's recent weakness. It's showing relative strength.
This makes sense. Stablecoins are on everybody's mind and in the news flow, which helps Ethereum's narrative. The ETHUSD weekly chart shows some really big moves building up.
Will Ethereum test $2150 before breaking $2700? I think its fate is still tied to what Bitcoin does, but if we're heading higher like I expect, this would lead to an outsized move to the upside.
The new narrative: We've clearly shifted from the meme coin and Solana narrative to "institutions are serious, they want to tokenize the world, stablecoins are here" and that's going to be mostly on Ethereum.
This can cover substantial ground over a short period of time and continue the ETH/BTC uptrend that looks like it began from the April lows.
Final Thoughts
Stay flexible on altcoins and don't fall into the bag holding trap when narratives shift.
The setup is there for explosive moves higher once Bitcoin clears the previous highs. But we need to respect the key levels and be ready to adjust.
Stay patient, don't get chopped up by daily noise, and keep your eye on what really matters.
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend.
PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?
Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators that help you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com