Strategy Sells Bitcoin. Here's Why I'm Not Worried.
Bitcoin Roadmap
If you’ve been watching the price action today, you already know. Bitcoin pulled back roughly 2.5% after news broke that Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin to fund dividends on their Digital Credit securities. The reaction was fast and the headlines were predictable.
But before we get into what this actually means, let me say something plainly: I am not surprised by this. And if you have been following along, you should not be either.
What Strategy’s Sale Tells Us
Strategy still holds 843,775 Bitcoin. They are not exiting. They are not abandoning their thesis. They sold a fraction of their stack to service a financial obligation, the same kind of routine corporate treasury management that happens in every asset class.
The market reacted like it was a fire sale.
That is bear market behaviour. In a bull market, this headline barely moves the needle. In a declining phase of the four-year cycle, every piece of news that can be read negatively will be. Sentiment is the fuel, and right now sentiment is running on fear.
I have been watching this pattern for years. The asset sells off on news that, in a different phase of the cycle, would be ignored completely. That is not a reason to panic. It is confirmation that we are still inside the exact cycle structure I have been mapping since the beginning of the year.
Where We Are in the Cycle
The four-year cycle peaked in October 2025. We are now closing in on nine months of declining price action, and if history rhymes the way it usually does, we are tracking toward a cycle low somewhere around the October 2026 timeframe.
That is the window I am building toward.
The setup right now looks consistent with prior midterm year behaviour. A declining phase that chops lower, occasionally flushes hard, produces counter-trend rallies that pull people in, and then continues its grind before the real bottom forms. This is not unusual. This is the cycle doing exactly what cycles do.
What I said back in May still holds: the 10-month moving average is the structural line that separates bear market territory from anything resembling a bullish environment. Until Bitcoin reclaims and holds above that level, the burden of proof sits with the bulls.
The Equities Picture Adds Some Context
The S&P has had a massive run off its lows earlier in the year, but the weekly structure is showing signs that a reset could be forming. Nothing catastrophic. Just the kind of normal digestion that a market needs after a sustained move. The average midterm year historically drifts through choppy, flat to negative price action from summer into early fall, with the weakest stretch typically showing up between August and September before markets recover into year end.
If equities do pull back into September, that lines up well with the Bitcoin cycle. Everything funneling toward a risk-off low across asset classes at roughly the same time would create the kind of capitulation moment that actually ends bear markets.
That is the scenario I am watching for.
Gold Is in a Cooldown Phase
Gold had a remarkable run and now it is digesting. The move from the lows to the highs was almost entirely green candles across multiple months. That kind of vertical advance always needs time to reset.
The secular bull market in precious metals is still intact. This is just the consolidation phase that follows parabolic moves. Patient holders will be rewarded when the next leg develops, likely later in the year or into 2027. Nobody should be chasing gold right now, but nobody should be bailing on it either.
My Accumulation Plan
I want to be transparent about what I am actually doing, because that is the whole point of this series.
My plan is to add to Bitcoin in layers as price moves lower. I have been building gradually, and I intend to keep doing that through whatever this cycle throws at us between now and the October window. If we get a flush below $50,000, I plan to be a buyer there too. That level would represent serious value in the context of the full four-year cycle, and I want dry powder ready for it.
The goal is to reach a full allocation by the time the cycle low forms. Not in one lump sum. In layers, deliberately, so that if price continues lower I am not frozen out of better entries.
I said it earlier in this series and it is worth repeating: the biggest gains in any cycle come from getting positioned at low prices during periods of maximum fear. That is not a comfortable process. It is supposed to feel bad. If it felt great, everyone would be doing it and the opportunity would not exist.
The Bottom Line
Nothing about today changes the thesis. The four-year cycle is intact. The October 2026 window remains my target for a full allocation. The Strategy news is bear market noise, not a structural shift.
Stay patient. Keep building. The real opportunity is still ahead.
Thanks for reading!
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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Michael Saylor. Has said the traditional 4 yr cycle is dead. 🤷♂️