Saylor Keeps Buying. Bitcoin Keeps Lagging. Here's What I'm Doing.
Bitcoin Roadmap
If you’ve been watching the S&P 500 push to new all-time highs while your Bitcoin position lags, you’re not alone. Stocks are partying like it’s 2021, and crypto is sitting in the corner wondering when its invitation gets sent.
Let me be upfront. The S&P making fresh all-time highs has to be respected. That’s a bull market within a secular bull market. Nobody who fights an all-time high tends to come out ahead.
But there’s a real conflict in the data right now.
This rally since the April lows has been almost vertical, with very few meaningful pullbacks. A lot of what’s pulling the S&P higher is concentrated in a handful of names. Tech and semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting.
The semiconductor index on a monthly chart is basically going parabolic. Parabolic moves don’t end well. We just saw it with silver. The problem is nobody calls the absolute top, and trying to is a losing game. So I’ve been slowly scaling out of some semi positions like ASML and AVGO while staying invested in NVDA. That keeps me exposed enough to benefit if this run extends, without being overweight when the inevitable reset arrives.
Bitcoin Refuses to Confirm the Bull Story
Saylor keeps buying billions. The NASDAQ is at all-time highs. Liquidity conditions, on paper, should be a tailwind. And Bitcoin is doing almost nothing (compared to stocks).
The four-year cycle picture remains very clean from a bearish standpoint:
A clear month 35 high, which lines up with the last cycle, the cycle before that, and very close to the one before that
Price well below the declining 10-month moving average
A counter-trend bounce toward the declining 10-month moving average around $87,000 is normal. If Bitcoin pushes up to that zone in the coming weeks and then rolls over, the four-year cycle thesis gets confirmed.
Don’t Front Run the Bottom (But Don’t Ignore the Setup Either)
The monthly chart just gave us something worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin produced a strong monthly close above the April 2025 lows.
That’s a bullish development inside an otherwise bearish structure, so I added a 2% allocation on the back of that close.
Small, measured, and tied to a real technical event rather than wishful thinking.
Where I’d Actually Scale In Heavier
Anywhere between $50,000 and $60,000 is where I start treating Bitcoin as a heavy accumulation zone for long-term holdings. I wouldn't be shocked to see a brief breach of $50,000 over the summer or fall, even if it doesn't hold there for long.
Bitcoin is showing diminishing returns each cycle, so the magnitude of the decline keeps shrinking. We’ve already covered roughly 50% from the highs. Another 15% to 20% gets us into that accumulation zone without needing a catastrophic event.
We’re also already past the midpoint of the bear market in terms of price damage. Instead of waiting for one perfect entry, I’d rather scale in gradually from here in case Bitcoin doesn’t actually deliver a new low. Missing the bottom because I was too rigid about my levels would cost more than averaging in slightly higher than ideal.
Gold After the Parabolic Move
Gold has more than doubled over a couple of years. Now it’s consolidating, and people are panicking that the bull market is over.
It isn’t. Gold is sitting roughly at the midpoint of an eight-year cycle. The current consolidation is exactly what these cycles do after a parabolic stretch.
I took profits gradually on the way up and currently hold no position. If gold pulls back into the late summer or fall and resets sentiment properly, that’s where I’d look to re-enter. Forcing a position in a cooling market is how investors give back the gains they worked hard to capture.
Patience Beats Prediction
The hardest part of this game isn’t picking the right direction. It’s sitting still when everything around you is screaming for action.
Right now, the right action is mostly no action. None of these markets need me to do anything aggressive this week. What I am doing is keeping limit orders sitting at the levels where I actually want to scale in heavier.
The biggest gains in the next cycle will come from being positioned right when most people have given up. Patience now is what funds aggression later.
Thanks for reading!
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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Just saw a nice breakout this morning. The bear market is over.