Prepare For Bitcoin's Most Bullish Phase
After months of consolidation and navigating through macro uncertainty, we’re now entering one of the most bullish phases of Bitcoin’s market cycle.
For those who've been following the four-year cycle theory, you'll recognize that we're now moving into the third year — the year where things truly start to get interesting. It’s the moment when the fireworks usually kick off, and Bitcoin tends to see its most explosive gains.
Why the Third Year Matters
In the third year of the 4-year cycle, we see those parabolic moves everyone dreams of. We've seen this play out time and again. In 2017, during the third year of the previous four-year cycle, Bitcoin went from under $1,000 to nearly $20,000.
Similarly, in late 2020, which was again the third year of that cycle, Bitcoin blasted through $20,000 and kept going until it reached $69,000. If history is any guide, we’re once again positioned for a powerful upside run.
Market Confidence Returns Post-Election
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: the elections. We've just passed through a major political event, and the results are bringing a sense of clarity to the market. In previous cycles, we’ve seen how much uncertainty around elections can weigh on markets. But once the dust settles, especially now with pro-crypto sentiment coming out of the winning camp, it will inject fresh confidence into Bitcoin's price action.
And that’s precisely where we are right now. There’s a newfound sense of optimism, and you can almost feel the market gearing up for a major move. Remember, Bitcoin doesn’t care about who won or lost. What it thrives on is certainty. Investors are now looking at the next couple of years with renewed clarity and confidence, knowing the playing field ahead.
Breaking Key Resistance
We’re at a point now where Bitcoin’s chart looks extremely promising. All those months of chopping around, consolidating, and retesting support levels are likely behind us. The big picture shows that we’ve broken out of a downtrend that’s been in place for over 8 months. The technical structure has shifted, and it’s clear that we’re now in the early stages of a new bull trend.
Now take a step back and look at the monthly chart — you’ll see the green candles starting to stack up. We’ve broken past critical resistance levels and are trading well above the 10-month moving average. That’s a textbook sign of a market that’s ready to shift into a new phase. Historically, once Bitcoin moves above it’s all time high and confirms it, we see sustained rallies that often don’t look back.
The Time to Be Fully Allocated
So, let’s talk strategy. In this kind of environment, sitting on the sidelines waiting for dips is often a mistake. We’ve already witnessed the chopping phase, the frustrating periods of sideways movement, and the false breakouts. But now, as the structure shifts, it’s all about positioning. If you're not already fully allocated, you might find yourself chasing prices higher.
We've seen time and again that in bull markets, the best move is to get in and hold on. Sure, volatility will happen — it always does with Bitcoin — but trying to time those perfect entries can leave you behind. The third year is where the risk-to-reward ratio becomes incredibly favorable for long-term holders.
Institutional Momentum and the ETF Catalyst
One of the most significant developments in the current cycle is the growing institutional interest, fueled by the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. This is serving as a major tailwind, providing a new gateway for billions of dollars to flow into Bitcoin. With large institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others launching their ETFs, the narrative is clear: Bitcoin is becoming more widely accepted as a legitimate asset class.
We’ve already seen what happened with the futures-based ETFs in 2021, but a spot ETF is an entirely different game. It creates sustained buying pressure, as institutions begin to allocate capital into this new vehicle. It’s not just speculation anymore; it’s about Bitcoin cementing its place in the portfolios of large-scale investors.
Looking Forward
Right now, everything seems to be aligning. The third year of the cycle is underway, institutional momentum is building, and the macro backdrop is becoming more favorable with clarity post-election. It’s as if we’re witnessing the perfect tsunami brewing. This is the moment we all waited for.
We’ve already seen how Bitcoin reacts when it catches fire during these third-year cycles. The gains tend to come fast and furious, often leaving those who hesitated scrambling to get in at much higher prices. The market structure is signaling that the trend is up, and the best approach is to ride this wave while it’s still early.
If we take a look at the past, once Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time highs, it often moves in a nearly parabolic fashion for the next several months. If that happens this time around, we could be talking about Bitcoin reaching six figures sooner than many anticipate.
Thanks for reading!
Written by Timothy Assi, a popular investor on eToro.
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