Precious Metals Hit "Mania Mode" (Bitcoin Update Inside)
Bitcoin Roadmap
Hi everyone! Hope you’re having a great weekend. We’ve got quite a bit to cover today, especially with the incredible run we’re seeing in precious metals, but let’s start by looking at equities.
S&P 500: The Bull Run Continues
The S&P 500 just keeps pushing higher week after week. We’re looking at another new high this week, and honestly, it’s starting to feel like we might finally see some pullback in this trend. Though I have to admit, I’ve been thinking this for a while now, and the market just keeps proving me wrong with fresh highs.
This whole move is starting to feel like a runaway situation, almost bubble-like in how the S&P just keeps climbing. While it’s not necessarily actionable right now, the length of this run suggests we’re probably due for some decline.
Looking at the weekly timeframe, this move is really overextended. April was the last time we saw any significant selling pressure. From that point, we’ve only seen 5 red candles out of 24 total candles.
Looking back at 2021, we had a similar relentless push that lasted 26 weeks before a meaningful correction. There are even longer examples, like a 35-week run we saw previously.
The key point here is this trend could keep going. You don’t want to bet against it. If we do get that eventual drop, I think it could be sharp and quick, maybe a three to five week decline to reset sentiment.
A weekly correction would typically reconnect with the weekly moving average, now sitting around 6500.
For now, any selling here is mostly just a shakeout and sentiment reset before continuation higher. So stay in position and don’t be afraid of pullbacks that will eventually come.
Gold: The Vertical Shot Higher
Now let’s talk about where there’s been incredible interest lately. Gold has been absolutely explosive. Looking at the weekly chart, this is a straight vertical move from the low 3300s to almost 3700. That’s a six-week run that’s truly significant by gold standards.
I know if you’re holding gold, and it’s up substantially, there’s this urge to sell because it looks so stretched. But I can guarantee you probably had that same urge three weeks ago, two weeks ago, and a week ago, and it just kept making new highs. From a long-term holding perspective, I don’t think you should give up your position.
Even though we’ll probably see a $100 pullback at some point, maybe even $150, I think you want to hold through that.
When you look at the monthly gold chart, the trend just keeps going higher. When we get this kind of precious metals mania, it tends to keep going. I don’t see why we’d want to call a top just because it’s overbought. This is the type of asset that can remain extremely stretched for very long periods.
This is maturing into a solid major bull market. It’s not young, but it’s not old either. We’re 35 months into this trend that started in November 2022, and this is a dominant move. This isn’t just a three or four month spike to pull everyone in. This is a big breakout on multiple timeframes.
All the fundamental reasons support this thesis. East versus West tensions, sovereign debt risks, global geopolitical issues... all these factors really support why gold is moving higher.
Silver Finally Moving
Silver’s moving now, and it’s in runaway mode.
Looking at the daily chart, yes, it’s stretched. We know it’ll probably pull back. This is a volatile asset, we understand that. But just four or five weeks ago at $40, you might have thought it was stretched and due for a pullback.
This is probably going to hit the $50 range, maybe $48 to $50 around those prior highs. You’d think there would be logical selling at that point, but this is a runaway bull market. I don’t want to be left behind if this just keeps going because sometimes these precious metals get in this mode where they just run and run.
Other Precious Metals Opportunities
I recently added palladium personally. The last high in 2021 was at $3,000, and it’s only at $1,300 now. This offers a good opportunity as a smaller position with solid fundamentals and bottoming action.
Platinum has been another one I’ve highlighted. Good move here on the monthly chart, making new highs after that pullback we saw. I think this can run toward $2,200 and all-time high levels.
Across precious metals, it’s been a long time coming and a long wait. Now it’s about not taking the first good profit but seeing if we can get a major bull market out of this.
Bitcoin: Patience Required
Bitcoin is still struggling, but that’s expected as it’s currently still in a declining phase. It would be bullish if it takes out the September lows, makes a clean break under that level, and forms a proper low to move higher.
Then we want to see a reversal and confirmation of a new move above the last lower high at $118k, but there’s nothing at this point suggesting we’re there yet.
This just requires patience, waiting for the eventual bottom.
We’ve seen two pretty big liquidation days, which is surprising because they weren’t massive down days. It shows everyone was thinking this was the beginning of that Q4 blow-off push, and pretty much everybody got leveraged up on that idea.
As far as I can see, we’re setting up for possibly that final move down. This decline has been relatively contained, only 13% from all time highs. .
Looking at monthly charts and cycle analysis, this downward pressure should be ending soon. The four-year cycle pattern shows we’re at the precise moment where bull markets typically ignite their final explosive rally phase.
Bitcoin Dominance and Alts
Dominance did rise the other day and dropped back. Could be a new short-term uptrend, but even though something like Solana got hit hard, most of the altcoins have stayed in check with Bitcoin’s decline. We’ve seen dominance move from 57% to about 58.5%, so some outperformance from Bitcoin, but nothing to say altcoins are getting crushed.
As far as I’m concerned, dominance peaked back in June. Even a move up to 62% wouldn’t be unusual. The main takeaway is that the dominance chart is clearly in a downtrend, and these are just counter-trend moves.
That’s why I added more altcoins to my portfolio like XRP, LINK, EIGEN and HYPE. But I’m prepared to cut some of these positions if my thesis is wrong and the market continues to drop. The main goal should always be to preserve capital and wait patiently for the next opportunity.
Take care, everybody. Have a great week ahead.
PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?
Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
🟩 Panic Drop Podcast : on your favorite streaming app