My Bitcoin Buy Plan: How I'm Preparing For The Next Bull Market
Bitcoin Roadmap
Nobody’s checking their crypto these days.
The excitement is gone and the conversations have quieted down.
I get it… Watching Bitcoin grind lower while equities push to new highs has been exhausting.
But here’s the thing about this exact moment in the cycle. It’s the part where the next bull market actually gets built. By the ones quietly preparing, ready to deploy, and waiting for the market to come to them.
That’s where I am right now. And I want to walk you through exactly how I’m thinking about adding back to my Bitcoin position over the coming weeks.
The Setup Is Coming Into Focus
We’re deep into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. The structure is clearly bearish. Lower highs, lower lows, well below the key moving averages. That part isn’t really up for debate anymore.
What is up for debate is how low this decline ends, and how aggressive we want to be when it does.
Looking at how prior cycles played out, declines have been getting smaller each time. The 2018 cycle saw an 86% drawdown. The 2022 cycle delivered around 77%.
This time, diminishing returns suggest we likely won’t see anything that severe. A move into the mid 60s would be consistent with that smoothing pattern, with the possibility of brief breaches lower without naming a deeper destination.
So this is the part of the cycle where I shift from defense to preparation. Not aggressive buying. Not all in. Layered accumulation at levels that make sense.
My Layered Buy Plan
I have two specific levels marked for adding back to my Bitcoin allocation.
First layer: $75,000. This is where I start nibbling. Bitcoin has shown reaction at this zone already, and a clean test here gives me a reasonable risk reward setup for starting to build the position. I’m not going all in at this level. Just dipping my toe back in the water with a measured allocation.
Second layer: $66,000. This is where I get more meaningful. The 200 week moving average sits in this region, and historically that level has marked significant accumulation zones. If we get a print down here, I’m sizing up considerably. This is the kind of level where long term holders look back and wish they had bought more.
The reason I’m layering is simple. Trying to pick the exact bottom is a losing game. Nobody catches the absolute low. What you can do is build a position across multiple support levels, accept that some buys will look bad in hindsight, and trust that your average entry over the full move will set you up well for the next rising phase.
And just as important: I’m making sure I still have cash left after these two layers. If Bitcoin pushes deeper and we see a print into the $50s, I want to have something left to deploy.
Why I’m Not Waiting For Confirmation
A lot of people will wait for Bitcoin to reclaim the 50 week moving average before adding. I understand the logic. You wait for the trend to confirm, then you commit.
But here’s the issue with that approach in cycle investing. By the time confirmation arrives, prices are already well off the lows. You miss the asymmetric setup. The best cycle entries always feel uncomfortable at the time, because they happen when sentiment is destroyed and the chart still looks broken.
I’d rather start scaling in at predetermined levels while the market is weak than chase strength after the move has already started.
The Psychology Of Buying When It Hurts
Let me be honest about what this actually feels like. When Bitcoin hits $66,000 again, the headlines will be brutal. The doom callers will be the loudest they’ve been all cycle. Every social media feed will be flooded with reasons why this time it goes to zero, why the cycle is broken, why crypto is finished.
That’s exactly when the buy orders need to be sitting there ready to fire. Set the limits in advance. Walk away. Let the market do its thing. Even people who have been waiting all cycle for those prices will struggle to actually pull the trigger when the moment comes. That’s just how this works.
What I’m Watching In The Meantime
While I wait for these levels, I’m paying attention to a few things.
Equity markets matter here. If the S&P 500 holds its structure and continues higher, that provides some cushion under risk assets generally. If equities start to crack, Bitcoin likely accelerates lower, which actually speeds up the timeline to those accumulation levels I’m watching.
I’m also watching how sentiment evolves. The deepest moments of fear typically come right before the meaningful reversals. When you start seeing capitulation language from people who held through the entire decline, that’s usually a sign the bottom is close.
Looking Forward, Not Backward
The single most important thing during this phase is keeping your head in the right place. The cycle hasn’t ended. It’s just doing what cycles do.
If Bitcoin never hits those levels and ramps higher from here? That’s fine. I still have core exposure. I won’t miss the move entirely. But I’m not going to chase strength when the cycle structure suggests better prices are likely ahead.
The next bull market is being built right now. Not in price action. In the positioning that smart investors are doing while everyone else looks away.
Thanks for reading!
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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