My 5-Level Bitcoin Strategy For Catching Bull Markets
In this post, I want to break down every move I made and the thinking behind it. None of this is about hindsight perfection. It's about showing how I manage risk in real time, using price structure, momentum, and macro context as a guide.
My Bitcoin allocation in my portfolio is based on how bullish or bearish I feel across multiple timeframes. I adjust according to market trends and structure, aiming to align with momentum, not fight it.
Here’s how I break down my allocation:
Heavy – 10%
Medium Heavy – 7.5%
Medium – 5%
Light – 2.5%
Zero – 0%
How I Managed My Portfolio
My BTC indicator flipped red when Bitcoin closed below $85,000, signaling a potential shift in momentum. In response, I reduced exposure to a Medium 5% allocation — still a solid stance considering Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend within its four-year cycle.
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This week, I’ve added back 2.5%, bringing my total to 7.5% (Medium Heavy) after Bitcoin reclaimed the first key resistance at $88,500 — a crucial step in confirming a renewed weekly uptrend.
If price breaks through and holds above $94,500, I’ll step up to a Heavy 10% allocation — a level that, to me, confirms renewed bullish strength.
Philosophy
I don’t aim to catch every single move but instead focus on capturing the bulk of the trend. During confirmed bear markets, I stay light; during strong bull phases, I go heavy. This reduces drawdowns but also means I might miss some upside. That tradeoff is intentional—I prefer a smoother equity curve over riding out 70%+ drawdowns, which some long-term holders are fine with if they're mentally prepared.
I don’t really view “buying back higher'“ as a mistake if the reasons at the time made sense. That decision was made once Bitcoin dropped below an important key area, and the assumption was that that opened the door to further downside.
At that stage, it felt prudent to cut exposure because of how weak equities were looking and what that could mean for broader risk assets. It wasn’t outside the norm to consider we could’ve dropped 40–50% from the peak. It wasn’t about flipping short, just dialing things down a bit to protect capital.
The reason I’ve rotated back in is that the trend has clearly shifted again. It’s tough sometimes — you go with the data you have at the moment. We don’t always get it right, and that’s okay. The goal is to keep learning from it.
Turning the Corner
Fast-forward to now, and we clearly marked a bottom on April 9. That deeper low and quick recovery above 80K and 88.5K was enough to classify it as a reversal.
Now, let’s start with what’s still nagging me — which is the broader equity environment. There’s a chance we’re in for more instability there, and any faltering in earnings or further trade tension could easily lead to more drops. That would weigh on all risk markets, Bitcoin included. It’s shown strong ties to those moves before, so it’s a fair concern.
But — and it’s a meaningful but — the price action lately is speaking for itself.
Bitcoin started showing strength even while indices continued to drift lower in March. And while the S&P and Nasdaq took another leg down, Bitcoin actually held the line and began moving up, showing some clear separation.
Big Candle, Big Message
This current weekly candle is impressive — and while it's still early in the week, the strength is enough to lean into the possibility of a longer move.
When Bitcoin tapped 90K, I didn’t want to wait on a daily or weekly close to decide. It felt strong. And while that’s not a technical signal, when paired with structure and momentum, it was enough for me to reenter.
Yes, I’ve flipped my stance — but that’s just being reactive to the market. There’s no reward for stubbornness. Conditions change, and so does positioning.
If Bitcoin starts rolling back over — then we might be looking at a distribution top. That would point to a more complex topping pattern with another big leg down to follow.
The key level here is $74,400. That’s the recent low. If this really is a strong push higher, price shouldn’t get anywhere near that again. A pullback to the mid-80s would be normal — but a trip back below 75 would break the structure and reset everything again.
Closing Thoughts
I know some of you are thinking — how can the view change that fast? Weren’t we cautious just weeks ago?
Yes. And the market looked weak then. Now it looks different. That’s how this works. Charts shift, money moves, and momentum builds — and then we adjust.
So the focus now is on staying nimble and using the current structure to manage risk.
If this plays out the way it looks like it might, the back half of this move could be strong. And if not, well, we’ve got our levels, and we’ll respond accordingly.
Thanks for reading
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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