Markets on Fire: What 80 Years of History Tells Us to Do Right Now

Stock Market Pulse (March)

War. Oil at $90. Inflation ticking back up. GDP stumbling. Private credit panic headlines every other day.

And yet, if you know where to look, some of the highest quality businesses in the world are sitting at prices that serious long-term investors dream about.

The S&P 500 is down just over 2% year to date. On the surface, that sounds manageable. But underneath, the damage is real. Software stocks are down 15% to 25%. Payment giants, cybersecurity names, financial data companies, and even private credit BDCs have been dragged into the carnage. Mr. Market is in full panic mode, selling first and asking questions never.

In today’s analysis, I break down:

• The US-Israel war with Iran and why 80+ years of market history says you should not panic sell a single share.

• The oil price surge and the specific threshold that has historically triggered recessions.

• Why private credit fears are massively overblown.

• The sector rotation trapping emotional investors in a buy high, sell low cycle.

• The macro data from the last 40 days and what it actually means for your portfolio.

Let’s get to work.