Market Divergence: Why Equities Thrive While Bitcoin Lags
Bitcoin Roadmap
The S&P 500 is looking extremely bullish at the moment. You must be thinking ‘how? Trump just announced new tariffs..’
But we’re sitting near fresh all-time highs after a steady climb higher. The market remains well above key moving averages, which keeps the bigger picture intact and healthy.
Short-term traders should stay alert though. We could see a brief shakeout over the next week or so before the next major move begins.
Yes, the Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority could shake things up. But this is one of those periods where you want to stay invested and let the trend work for you.
Your only real decision? How much exposure you want versus keeping cash on the sidelines. You’re not looking to sell on every little dip or panic over normal market noise.
A Powerful Signal for 2026
Let me share something that adds serious weight to the bullish case.
Wayne Whaley created the TOY Barometer after testing thousands of price trends and dates. He found that when the S&P 500 gains 3% or more between November 19th and January 19th, the market delivers positive returns 96% of the time over the next 12 months. The average gain? A solid 16.48%.
This isn’t some recent discovery with limited data. The track record goes back to 1950. Over those 75 years, it’s only failed twice: in 1987 and 2018.
Context matters here. In 1987, we had Black Monday, one of the most severe crashes in market history. In 2018, the Fed hiked rates while simultaneously running quantitative tightening. Both taps turned off at once.
But here’s something important: the TOY Barometer doesn’t mean you won’t see corrections along the way. Take 2020, for example. The pandemic crash sent markets down 34% in a matter of weeks. That was brutal. But the market recovered and still finished the 12-month period positive from the TOY signal.
Yes, we might see pullbacks or even sharp corrections during the year. But don't let that shake you out of what history strongly suggests should be a profitable period when measured 12 months from now.
Precious Metals: Powerful Trends That Refuse to Quit
Gold presents an interesting situation right now. The trend is incredibly strong, but we’re getting into territory where a pullback could be approaching.
Here’s my view: I’m not calling for commodities to crash. Gold historically runs on roughly an 8-year cycle, and we’re only around year 3. That alone argues for higher prices over the medium to long term, especially with the current macro and geopolitical backdrop.
My point is about timeframe and positioning. After a parabolic move like we’ve seen, sharp pullbacks are normal and healthy. They don’t invalidate the trend, but they can be violent in the short term. That’s where people get hurt when they confuse momentum with inevitability.
Two Different Approaches
For traders: selling into strength and buying during weakness makes sense here.
For investors: the key is mental preparation. A multi-month correction wouldn’t surprise me at all, even within a secular uptrend.
Personally, I still hold a solid long-term allocation I’m comfortable sitting with. I just separate long-term conviction from short-term risk management.
Yes, uncertainty, geopolitics, and real asset demand can keep supporting commodities structurally. I just think we’re getting deep enough into this move that trimming makes sense.
The goal is to keep a core position intact while the secular trend plays out, even when sharp corrections hit along the way.
Bitcoin: Counter-Trend Bounce
Let’s start with a painful fact: Equities are trading near all-time highs while Bitcoin sits nowhere near its peak. That relative weakness is a major concern.
We did see a day or two where equities dropped while Bitcoin climbed. Some people wondered if the correlation was reversing, but that didn’t last. When stock futures turned red, Bitcoin quickly followed, breaking a key level at $94,000.
This move feels like a counter-trend rally back toward the 50-week moving average before finding a lower high and rolling over. It’s not what I want to happen, it’s just what I think is going to happen.
I know a lot of people are losing interest right now. The market isn’t exciting. But staying active through the boring years is how you build wealth over the long haul.
You need a plan and you need to stick to it. Hedge where appropriate, but don’t abandon the strategy just because things feel slow.
Thanks for reading!
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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