How Soon Before Bitcoin Bulls Return?
Happy New Year, everyone! Wishing you and your loved ones a fantastic 2025 filled with health, happiness, and prosperity.
I want to take a moment to thank you for being part of this journey, and I hope I’ve provided insights to navigate these markets effectively. 2025 is shaping up to be an exciting year, and while the long-term picture remains bullish, it’s important to discuss Bitcoin’s price action with a balanced view.
As we kick off this year, I want to talk about three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the short to mid-term. These scenarios are not predictions but are intended to help us position/prepare ourselves in every possible scenario, especially knowing altcoins could fall harder when Bitcoin does. Let’s dive into them:
Scenario 1: The Bullish Path
In this scenario, Bitcoin’s recent lows are already behind us, and the market resumes its uptrend without further major declines. This would align with the classic "up only" mentality some hold in bull markets.
While it’s tempting to lean into this possibility, it’s the least likely of the three. The market rarely operates in a straight line, and after a 110% move in a couple of weeks, sentiment and market structure often need to reset. However, if this scenario plays out, it suggests that the cycle lows are already in, and we could see a gradual climb from here.
Scenario 2: A Short-Term Shakeout Before the Bull Resumes
This scenario envisions one final shakeout in the coming days. A sharper decline could bring Bitcoin into the mid-$80,000 range, offering a sentiment reset before the bull market resumes.
Here’s why this is healthier for the market: A sharper pullback can flush out weak hands, rebalance overly bullish sentiment, and create a strong base for the next leg up. We’d be looking for a capitulation-style drop followed by a rapid recovery, forming a new weekly higher low.
This scenario would likely play out over the next 5–7 days, with a reversal shortly afterward. This drop could present an excellent buying opportunity, especially for adding spot positions or leveraged trades in anticipation of a reversal. From there, the market could move decisively higher as we head deeper into 2025.
Scenario 3: Mid-Term Bearish with Lower Lows Ahead
In this path, the market doesn’t experience the sharp shakeout described in Scenario 2. Instead, Bitcoin may continue to bounce within a range, potentially even retesting $100,000. However, the structure remains vulnerable, and a deeper decline could follow later.
This would mean a few weeks of bearish price action before the market truly bottoms. A retest or slight break below current levels could take Bitcoin into the $70,000–$80,000 range. Such a decline wouldn’t be out of character for bull markets; retesting breakout points is a common occurrence.
Even in this scenario, the long-term view remains bullish, with new highs in 2025.
Final Thoughts
Whether we see a short-term shakeout, a more prolonged correction, or an immediate resumption of the uptrend, the overarching trend for 2025 remains highly promising.
Remember, the goal isn’t to predict the future with certainty but to position ourselves effectively for whichever path unfolds. Here’s to a prosperous year ahead—let’s make 2025 a great one!
Thanks for reading.
Written by Timothy Assi, a popular investor on eToro.
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