Holiday Rally Setup Meets Midterm Election Year Warning Signs

Bitcoin Roadmap

The market is setting up for what could be a strong holiday period rally. December 15th marks the typical start of a two-week stretch of seasonal strength that often carries into the new year. After consolidating since late October through November and early December, I think we’re positioned for a substantial move higher.

S&P 500: Strong Trend Meets Midterm Election Year Headwinds

The market printed a slight all-time high recently after holding in a tight range for seven weeks. Everything appears aligned for upside momentum during the holiday period.

Looking at the monthly picture, the trend has been incredibly strong. We’ve seen seven consecutive green candles since the April lows, with only that brief tariff-related shakeout providing any real pullback.

The issue? We’re heading into 2026, a midterm election year, and history shows these years average a 17.5% drawdown.

The track record is consistent:

• 2022: 25% drawdown

• 2018: 20% drawdown

• 2010: 16% drawdown

• 2002: 34% drawdown

• 1998: 19% drawdown

• 1990: 20% drawdown

• 2014: 7% drawdown

• 2006: 7% drawdown

• 1994: 9% drawdown

I’m not calling the major top. We need to stay long this market. But if we get a solid six to eight week rally through the holiday period, I’ll start watching more carefully for signs of a peak heading into Q1. The good news is we’re seeing rotation away from some overheated tech and AI names while the S&P 500 holds near all-time highs. That’s healthy behavior.

Precious Metals: Relentless Strength

Gold continues to impress. After peaking mid October, it’s pulled back minimally while sentiment has reset considerably. We’re only $50 to $70 off those highs, yet nobody’s talking about gold anymore. That’s a sign of extreme strength in a powerful bull market.

I remain fully allocated, knowing we’ll eventually see a longer consolidation period of three to six months. When that comes is impossible to predict, so I’m staying with the trend.

Silver has decoupled from gold recently, showing more volatility. If you’re trading with leverage or futures positions, this looks like blow-off action that deserves a trailing stop. But for long-term holders, just ride the position. Bull markets shake people out, and trying to time every turn usually leaves you sidelined.

I also like copper here after a seven-candle pullback. The weekly chart looks similar to where gold was a year ago. With industrial demand for data centers and robotics, I think a small copper allocation makes sense for long-term holders.

Bitcoin: Disappointing Divergence

Bitcoin is 28% away from new all-time highs while the S&P 500 just made new highs. That’s not the behavior you want to see three weeks after what looked like a capitulation low. The correlation between Bitcoin and equities has been strong, so the probability this bull market has ended only increases.

I still think we could see a move back to $100,000 in early Q1. But the relative weakness is telling, and I’m looking to reduce exposure on any strength into that area.

I’ve mentioned the possibility of testing the 50-week moving average during a counter trend rally. However, looking at 2014 as a reference point, Bitcoin never touched that level during its correction. So while a test of the 50-week remains possible, it’s far from certain. The key is respecting the price action and staying flexible rather than expecting any specific outcome.

Portfolio Adjustments

I remain fully positioned in stocks and have been adding selectively during recent weakness. Over the last few weeks, I added positions in META, PANW, SPGI, and WM.

On the metals front, I’m looking to add a small copper position alongside my existing gold, silver and palladium allocation. The setup looks compelling, and I think it deserves dedicated exposure beyond the broader commodities index.

For Bitcoin, I’m running a low allocation overall. However, I do hold a position in Bitmine because of their significant ETH holdings. I still think Ethereum could be a late mover in this cycle, potentially outperforming as we head into Q1. That said, this is a position with a stop loss in place to protect the portfolio if the thesis doesn’t play out.

Thanks for reading.

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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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