Equities Are Falling. Bitcoin Can't Hide from That
Bitcoin Roadmap
If you’re someone who focuses primarily on crypto and you’re just itching to make a trade, take a position, do something. I get it.
But the reality is the same. In bear market environments like this one, the single most important thing you can do is not blow up your account doing something reckless out of boredom or restlessness. The desire to be active, to feel like you’re making progress, is powerful. And it’s exactly what gets people into trouble.
This is not an environment that rewards action for the sake of action. The setups aren’t clean. The narratives aren’t flowing. The trends are working against you. And the ideas people are coming up with right now aren’t born from good risk reward or strong technical signals. They’re born from a need to feel productive.
The S&P 500 Is Putting Pressure On Bitcoin
The S&P 500 is down around 9% from the highs. No matter how bullish you want to be on Bitcoin, I just don’t see an environment where equities are consistently falling and Bitcoin somehow escapes that pressure. Maybe from a relative standpoint Bitcoin holds up slightly better, but that’s partly because Bitcoin has been declining since October while the S&P 500 only recently began its own decline.
When liquidity dries up, when fear in the risk markets really starts building, when the VIX pushes toward 35, that’s when Bitcoin gets caught in the downdraft. That’s the environment where even the strongest conviction gets tested.
I wrote back in February that if stocks enter a downtrend this year, Bitcoin won’t escape that pressure. That view hasn’t changed. If anything, it’s becoming more relevant by the week.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Is the Ugliest in the Room
We’re back down to three week lows. The range since the February capitulation to $60,000 remains intact, and it’s not encouraging.
My biggest fear right now isn’t missing a 10% or 15% bounce. That’s not what keeps me up at night. My biggest fear is taking on exposure and getting trapped in positions again. Once Bitcoin loses the $66,000 level on the daily chart, there isn’t a whole lot of support below that. And then you start bringing targets like $55,000 into play.
A 25% drop in Bitcoin can happen in just a couple of weeks. We’ve seen it before in this cycle. That kind of move is not theoretical. It’s recent history.
Stop Trying to Catch the Turn
I know the red monthly candles are tempting. When you see five or six in a row, every instinct says it has to turn. And yes, at some point it will. But those signals become mind traps early in a bear market. You want it to be bullish so badly that you latch onto the oversold readings and convince yourself the bottom is forming.
Just when you think it can’t get worse, it can. And sometimes it does. Those extreme, capitulating moments are the ones that do the most damage to portfolios.
Between now and where I expect the four year cycle low to form, I do believe we’ll see a big green candle at some point. A real counter trend move. But in a bear market, we have to let those develop naturally. If the entry is clean and obvious, sure, take it. But the primary focus has to be on capital preservation and positioning for the real opportunity that comes at the end of this decline.
Where I’m Looking to Add
Even though timing matters enormously, price levels still count.
Anything in the low $50,000s is where I’d start adding long term spot positions. Your core holding, your conviction buy. That zone represents roughly a 60% decline from the highs, and historically, that’s a reasonable area to begin accumulating for the next four year cycle.
Could it go lower? Absolutely. In the last cycle, Bitcoin dropped over 77%. The cycle before that was around 84%. But the pattern has been moderating over time. The extremes, both on the upside gains and the downside declines, are getting smaller. That’s the maturing asset thesis playing out in real time.
So a decline of roughly 66% from the highs puts you in that $40,000 to $50,000 range. I think targeting that area is prudent. You don’t need to catch the absolute low. You just need to be in the right neighborhood with enough capital to make it count.
Now we’re playing defense. And defense, while boring, is critical. It’s the discipline of doing less that allows you to do more when the real opportunity arrives.
The people who perform best over multiple cycles aren’t the ones trading every bounce and every breakdown. They’re the ones who preserved capital through the decline and had the conviction and the cash to buy aggressively at the lows.
We’re getting closer. Not there yet. But closer.
Thanks for reading.
PS… Bear markets crush traders who don’t have a system. They buy the bounce too early, hold too long, and give it all back.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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