Don't Let Bitcoin's Final Flush Break You

Bitcoin Roadmap

Remaining disciplined in an asset class like Bitcoin with this level of volatility is extremely important. Because what ends up happening when you are not is that you round trip. You give back so much of what the cycle had to offer. All that patience, all those months of holding through the decline, and you end up exiting at the worst possible moment because the volatility finally broke you.

We have avoided that so far. And that discipline is exactly what this final phase demands more of, not less.

At the same time, I do not want to remain negative for longer than I need to. And we are definitely getting close now to the point where it makes more and more sense to really start thinking seriously about getting allocated for the next bull run.

Which is exactly what I am doing.

The Cycle Has Unfolded Almost Perfectly

Here is what I find remarkable about where we stand right now. Since the market peaked, the four-year cycle has basically been mocked and ignored. People have been calling it dead for months.

And yet it has unfolded almost with complete symmetry to prior cycles.

When your strategy is working, when the market is following the most probable path, you want to respect that as much as possible. You do not abandon it because social media is loud. You trust the framework until the framework gives you a reason not to.

Right now it has given me no reason to doubt it.

We are now in July. That peak feels like it was not that long ago, but it is already coming up to nine months since that high. And this has played out just like every prior cycle.

And we are now in window where a cycle low could form.

Why I Am Already Buying

Now here is the part I want to be transparent about, because this is the whole point of the series.

I am already buying Bitcoin at these levels as a long-term hold.

That is not me calling the exact bottom. What I am doing is using this window, the months approaching the cycle low, to build a position in layers. With the full expectation that I may see those positions go further under water before they recover.

I am comfortable with that. Because the risk reward on the higher time frame has shifted significantly.

Down 48 % off the highs and getting close to a four-year cycle low. The skew that made selling near the highs the right call is now starting to reverse. The same asset class that was dangerous to hold at the peak is becoming genuinely interesting to accumulate at these levels.

And the beauty of a highly volatile asset is that the volatility that worked against you on the way down becomes your greatest advantage on the way up. If you can avoid the majority of the decline and get positioned close enough to the lows, suddenly that volatility is working for you in a very big way.

Even at $64,000, getting back to just the highs of this cycle is a massive 100% move. And if you believe, as I do, that the next cycle produces new highs well above those levels, you understand why getting positioned now matters so much.

What the Chart Is Showing

When I look at Bitcoin’s chart and think about where completion happens, I think about symmetry.

Look at what prior cycles actually did in this window. In the 2018 cycle, Bitcoin stabilised around $6,000 for a couple of months. People thought the low was in. Then in the final two months it dropped 50% into the actual low at $3,800.

In the 2022 cycle, the market held around $18,000 for a sustained period before that last leg flushed all the way down to $15,500. Same pattern both times. Stabilisation. False hope. Then the real move.

That is the template I am working from.

When I apply that to the current structure, the $55,000 area is where this phase completes cleanly in my view. That is where the geometry resolves when I look at the overall shape of this cycle against prior ones.

If we push below that, I think the low $40,000s represent the worst case. And I want to be honest: that final decline, if it comes, will cover a lot of ground in a very short period of time.

That is how these ending phases have always worked across every cycle I have studied. They are sharp. They are violent. They are designed to shake out the people who survived the entire decline, right before the reversal begins. The 2018 flush happened in a matter of weeks. The 2022 flush was similarly fast. By the time most people reacted, the low was already in.

That is what makes this phase so dangerous if you are not already thinking about it now.

The Level That Changes Everything

I do not want to stay bearish for longer than the structure requires. That is just as dangerous as being too bullish.

The level I am watching above is $82,500. That is a major structural level. If Bitcoin trades convincingly above that, it has broken the declining trend. The bear thesis needs to be reassessed.

The 10-month moving average is also a key guide, currently sitting around $77,000. In prior bear markets, Bitcoin never really held above the 10-month for long during the declining phase. A sustained move back above that level would be telling us something different is happening.

Below those levels, the structure remains bearish. The burden of proof sits with the bulls.

The Point I Keep Coming Back To

The biggest gains in any cycle do not come from perfectly timing the top or catching every swing. They come from getting positioned at low prices during periods of maximum fear. A low average entry is the single best cushion against every mistake you will inevitably make during the next bull run. And everyone makes them.

The people who perform best across multiple cycles are the ones who were buying aggressively during peak fear. When everyone else had finally given up. When the doom posts were everywhere and nobody thought Bitcoin would ever recover.

That is the moment we are building toward.

I am not going all in at once. I am building in layers, keeping dry powder for the possibility that price moves meaningfully lower, and staying mentally prepared for positions to go further against me before the turn comes.

The market may not give us a perfect entry. It may not flush all the way down to the levels I am watching before reversing. But if it does, like it has in prior cycles, I want to be there to take that entry. And I want to be positioned well before that final move begins.

We have come this far. We just want to see the last bit unfold now.

Thanks for reading!

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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.

Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.

Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.

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