Decoding Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals: Is the Cycle Already Over?

On-Chain Data Report - 22/12/2025

Cycles often rhyme, but they don’t always repeat exactly. This time, Bitcoin nailed the timing but completely missed the sentiment.

The peak arrived right on schedule in Q4 of the post-halving year, just like clockwork. But where was the euphoria? The parabolic blow-off? The retail frenzy? None of it showed up. Bitcoin hit six figures in the most subdued bull market top we’ve ever seen.

I’ve been analyzing the on-chain data, and what I’m seeing contradicts the popular narrative. The short-term metrics are flashing warnings that most are ignoring, while the bigger picture reveals we may have already topped. This has major implications for the next 6 to 12 months.

In this analysis, I’ll break down what Bitcoin’s on-chain activity reveals about both the immediate outlook and our broader cycle position, including the critical thresholds that need to flip for bulls to regain control.