The S&P 500 just delivered one hell of a weekly candle, smashing through all-time highs with the kind of strength that makes you sit up and take notice. This isn't just any breakout - we're looking at a massive V-shaped recovery that's basically retraced the entire decline in roughly the same time it took to fall. That's textbook bullish action right there.
Sure, we're getting stretched here in the short term. Sentiment is running pretty hot, and the technical indicators are screaming overbought. A pullback is probably coming - that's just how markets work. But here's the thing: you don't want to be cute about it. Don't try to trade around it or get fancy with your positioning, especially not in your core accounts.
If we do see a decent decline over the next week or two, that's going to be your buying opportunity. Any confirmation of a short-term low should be treated as a gift, not a reason to panic.
The Big Picture Stays Bullish
The monthly chart tells the real story - we just had a massive shakeout that's now setting us up for months of potential upside before things get truly stretched on the longer timeframe.
The recent spending bill that just passed is going to keep the deficit machine humming along, and while people might not love the implications, it means more money flowing through the system. That's typically good for stocks.
This market could really surprise to the upside. We might even push up to 6400 before any meaningful correction shows up.
Gold: Taking a Breather, But Still in the Game
Gold is doing what gold does best - consolidating after a big run. We're seeing a bit of a consolidation on the weekly chart, which is just a pause in what's still very much a bull market.
Here's my take: both gold and equities can move higher together. The reasons gold took off in the first place haven't gone anywhere. Deficits are still massive, debt concerns persist, and that creates an environment where gold thrives.
If gold gets a decent dip down toward the 3000 level over the next few weeks, that's when I'd look to add to a precious metals positions.
Bitcoin: Patient Money Gets Rewarded
Monthly Chart Shows Strength
Bitcoin's monthly chart is looking absolutely fantastic right now. We're getting deeper into the four-year cycle, which is exactly where you want to be positioned. The technical setup is about as good as you could ask for, and the timing feels right for the next major move.
Months of Healthy Consolidation
Bitcoin had months of consolidation, just grinding sideways in a long term range, and that's actually a really healthy sign. When you look at how Bitcoin moves through these cycles, this kind of sideways action after a big move is textbook. It's not exciting, but it's necessary.
The market is digesting the gains, shaking out the weak hands, and setting up for what could be the next major leg higher. This consolidation is actually setting us up for what could be a pretty spectacular move once it decides to get going again.
Range Break Could Spark Major Move
When this range finally breaks - and it will break - you'd have to imagine we're looking at another four or five months of solid upward movement. That's just how these cycles tend to play out. The pattern is there, the timing feels right, and Bitcoin has this habit of sitting around doing nothing for months, lulling everyone to sleep, and then exploding higher when nobody expects it.
Bottom Line
Right now, I’m pretty much fully allocated, and I don't see any compelling reason to change course. The setup across multiple markets is just too good to get cute with.
The key thing to remember is that we're not early in this Bitcoin cycle anymore - we're in the meat of it. That's typically when the really good moves happen.
So while it might be boring watching it trade sideways, patience is going to be rewarded here. We're positioned exactly where we want to be for what's coming next.
Thanks for reading.
Timothy Assi
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
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📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
Solid macro perspective, sharp technical read. This kind of balanced conviction, bullish yet cautious, feels rare in the noise-heavy landscape.