Bitcoin's Bear Market Confirmed: What Comes Next
Bitcoin Roadmap
We’re seeing some brutal price action right now. A major sell-off just took out the April lows.
This confirms what I suspected: the 4-year cycle topped in October. That makes reducing crypto exposure after Bitcoin dropped below $100K look like the right call.
I know many of us already suspected this. But confirmation matters.
The problem? Confirmation usually comes late. If you wait for every signal to line up perfectly, you’ve often missed your chance to act.
That’s why anticipating moves matters more than waiting for certainty.
The Monthly Picture Looks Grim
Look at the monthly chart. We just started a new monthly candle, but we already have four red candles in a row. We’ve spent three months below the 10-month moving average. We’ve also closed below the 20-month moving average.
That 20-month average is a long-term indicator. When you lose that level and close below it, a bear market is basically confirmed.
This creates a tough environment for active traders. Volatility increases. Sharp counter-trend moves happen fast. It’s easy to get chopped up and second-guess every decision.
The Psychology Of Counter-Trend Moves
After four months of red candles, we expected a bigger counter-trend bounce up to the 50-week moving average. Instead, we topped out at $97,700 without even touching it. That looks like the high.
We’ll still see sharp moves up. Just be careful how you react.
If Bitcoin jumps back to $90,000 over the next few weeks, don’t panic buy thinking it’s going to keep climbing. Be aware of that impulse.
The bulls will use any bounce to push their narrative. If we rally back to $85,000, they’ll claim we double bottomed. They’ll say the bull market super cycle is back on.
If you buy into those narratives, here’s what happens: you buy higher in the range, then when it dumps, you sell at the bottom.
Don’t fall into that trap.
There’s Opportunity Ahead
Everything is cyclical. What’s done is done. We learn from it, adapt, and get better for the next cycle.
Now we focus on what’s ahead in 2026. We’ll see sharp counter-trend moves, but this downtrend will likely continue to the cycle low.
We want to be positioned right when everyone’s freaking out. When they’ve capitulated, sold everything, and turned completely bearish. That’s when we get bullish. Just like we did in 2022 at $17,000. Just like we did in 2018 at $3,800 when nobody thought Bitcoin would ever recover.
It was doom and gloom both times. We bought those levels well. We want to do the same again.
Timing Is Everything
It doesn’t matter how much you sold. What matters is that you sold enough near the highs after buying in the lows. If we can buy near those lows again in 2026, we’ll ride the whole cycle again.
Boom and bust. Sentiment swings. We’re going to experience it all again.
So look at this as an opportunity. Look forward. Don’t beat yourself up over what you could have done differently. Learn from it. Let’s get prepared for what’s coming in 2026.
Thanks for reading.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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