If you are still holding Bitcoin right now and watching the Nasdaq print all-time highs while your portfolio does nothing, the frustration is completely understandable. You are not losing your mind. The divergence is real, and it matters.
But this is also exactly the environment that breaks people right before things start to change.
Tech Is Taking Everything
Bitcoin is not trading on its own fundamentals right now. It is being ignored while capital floods into semiconductors, AI, and big tech. The Nasdaq is running wild while Bitcoin is down 50% from the highs.
That contrast tells you everything about where we are in the cycle. When a risk asset cannot catch interest even while risk appetite is clearly alive elsewhere, the market is making a choice. And right now, that choice is not Bitcoin.
This is not new behavior. It happened with gold last year. It happens with every asset class at some point. The rotation eventually comes back. It just does not come back on your preferred timeline.
What the On-Chain Data Is Saying
There is one number worth keeping your eye on right now. The realized price, which represents the average cost basis of every Bitcoin on-chain, currently sits just above $53,000.
In prior cycles, market price has dropped below the realized price. It happened in 2018. It happened in 2022. When it does, it signals genuine capitulation, the kind that marks the final washout before the next rising phase begins.
We are sitting roughly 20% above that level right now. That is not a guarantee we go there. But it is also not a number you can dismiss. The setup exists, and anyone who is not thinking about it is not being honest with themselves about where bear markets historically end.
The Monthly Still Point Lower
Price just tagged the 200-week moving average. That is a level worth respecting as touching it tends to produce at least a short-term reaction higher.
So yes, a bounce from here is entirely possible. It would not surprise me at all.
But zoom out to the monthly and the picture stays bearish. The 10-month moving average is declining and Bitcoin keeps printing closes beneath it. The cycle timing backs that up. Prior four-year cycle lows formed in the October timeframe. We are several months short of that.
Where I Bought and What I Am Watching Next
I put in orders at $60,000 and they filled. I said I would buy there and I did. That position is now slightly above water, but I am not celebrating yet.
My eyes are now on the $55,000 level as the next meaningful zone. If we get there, I add more. If we get a flush below that, toward the realized price level in the low $50,000s, I want to have cash ready for that as well.
And if the market does something most people think is impossible and pushes into the low $40,000 range? I want dry powder for that too. The difference between good accumulation and getting wiped out in a bear market is almost always cash management.
Defense First, Then Build
The declining phase is not finished. We are getting closer to the cycle low, but closer is not there yet. My plan is simple. I keep cash ready. I add in pieces at levels that make sense. I do not go all in at any single point, because I want ammunition left if price does something that surprises everyone.
The people who benefit most from the next rising phase are almost always the ones who were buying aggressively during maximum fear, not the ones who chased the early bounce.
Stay patient. Stay protected. The setup is getting closer.
Thanks for reading!
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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