If you have been following along the Bitcoin 4-year cycke, you know patience remains key. Not getting sucked into little moves and pumps. Not getting pulled in by narratives from parts of the community that do not serve you well.
This week, that discipline was tested again.
Bitcoin is sitting just below $61,000 as I write this. We bounced off $58,000 and social media immediately lit up. A $3,000 move and people are calling the low.
Simple reality is this: the trend keeps saying do not do it. Do not get pulled in. Do not get sucked in.
Equities Are Still Carrying the Picture
The decoupling story continues. The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. Bitcoin is on a 20-month low, down roughly 53% from the cycle peak. These are supposed to be correlated risk assets, and they are telling completely different stories right now.
As I wrote back in January, “equities are trading near all-time highs while Bitcoin sits nowhere near its peak. That relative weakness is a major concern.” That concern has only grown.
The equity market is only down -3.5%. And that matters, because if it drops more, Bitcoin will not escape that pressure. The absence of sustained equity weakness is part of why crypto is bearing the pain alone right now. But it is not protection that lasts forever.
What the Weekly Chart Is Saying
We have now made yet another low, taking out the initial low from February.
Now that we have breached this again, this is trouble. I think it is heading lower still later this year.
Lower highs, lower lows, and a structure that just keeps confirming the bear market thesis. Once we broke down and lost that 50 weekly moving average around the $100,000 area, that was the time to really start de-risking. And ever since then it has just been a matter of remaining patient and not trying to front-run a reversal that has not shown up in the data.
Until price gets back above that level convincingly, the burden of proof stays with the bulls.
The Counter-Trend Trap Is Still Ahead
The general view has not changed. The first leg down marks just the initial phase of a bear market. That gets followed by a counter-trend move back toward the 10-month moving average. Then the final phase down into the cycle low.
The four-year cycle low is projected around Q4 2026. That means we are still a few months ahead in this process. The idea that price just reverses from here and starts a new bull market is, frankly, highly unusual given where we are in the timing. The evidence just does not support it.
This cycle is playing out like every other four-year cycle. And that is the guiding principle right now.
When that counter-trend bounce arrives, it will feel great. It will pull people in. The calls for a new bull market will get loud. And if you buy into that emotion near the top of a counter-trend move, you end up buying high in the range and selling low when it rolls over.
Do not fall into that trap.
A Note on Sentiment
Sentiment on social media has reached genuine bear market levels. Bitcoin is dead again. Institutions are being mocked. Everyone is just flaming everybody. And look, that happens in every bear market cycle. Just like on the bull market side you had laser eyes, institutions, super cycle narratives, the messaging always gets skewed to wherever price is. Now you are seeing the opposite.
Strategy is a good example of this. Michael Saylor’s company is making deep, deep lows right now, well below the January lows. There is real stress in that position at these prices. And the community that was cheering every single Bitcoin purchase announcement is now the same community calling it reckless. That tells you everything about where sentiment sits.
From a sentiment standpoint, we have genuine bear market level readings already. The timing just needs to catch up.
Where I Am Building Exposure
I recently bought more Bitcoin at $60,000. That is a position I am comfortable sitting with long term. But I am not done.
The plan is to add more around $55,000, and keep adding lower if we get there, building toward 15 to 20% crypto exposure by the time a real bottom starts to form. Not rushing to that full allocation now. Managing cash is the key part. If you go all in now, you have nothing left for a deeper correction.
Ideally, the opportunity comes all the way down and falls in our lap. It does not always work that way, but that is the goal right.
Once there is more confidence that a genuine bottom is in, that is when Strategy or altcoins become worth a closer look. Not before. The altcoin picture right now is carnage. Forcing positions there without confirmation is a reliable way to watch capital disappear.
The timing view for the cycle low remains around the September to October window. Price-wise, the $50,000 area has always been the anchor, with the possibility of a brief move into the high $40,000s if the equity market cracks and takes crypto with it. If it gets into that range in that timing band, that is a call for being a lot more aggressive, even without full trend reversal confirmation.
But right now, this trend is dominant. It is strong. It is pointing lower. And it just made a new low.
The opportunity is getting closer, and you do not have to force it.
Thanks for reading!
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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