Bitcoin Is Waiting. So Should You.
Bitcoin Roadmap
Bitcoin is holding its ground, and when you’re in a bear market, holding the line without breaking down is about as good as it gets.
The key level everyone should be watching is $65,000. That’s where price touched recently, and that level needs to hold if there’s any hope of reversing this trend.
We need to see it defended convincingly. Right now, we’re at a critical juncture across both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and the resolution of one is likely going to dictate the other.
The S&P 500 Is the Real Tell Right Now
If you want to know what Bitcoin does next, keep your eyes on equities. The S&P 500 has been building red flags for a while, but it’s also held its line. That’s the same double-edged story we’re dealing with across the board.
We just had news of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s ability to impose tariffs without going through Congress.
You’d expect that to knock markets lower. Instead, we got a green candle developing. The fact that equities are shrugging off that kind of headline is worth noting. It’s also worth noting that we’ve now touched the lower support level on the daily chart three times.
Here’s the simple version: if the S&P 500 pushes through to the upside, I think we get a solid multi-week run higher. If it loses this level and breaks below the January 20th low, I don’t think we’re just going to sweep those lows and bounce. I think we’re looking at a more significant drop over the months ahead. That’s why this level matters so much.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Is Telling a Bear Market Story
Look at the weekly chart and it’s hard to paint a rosy picture. There’s been a big three-week sell-off, and the bounce back hasn’t produced anything meaningful. It just looks like it’s sliding. And when you have five consecutive red candles on the weekly, the trend is down. That’s not opinion, that’s just reading price action.
My base case remains that the four-year cycle low doesn’t arrive until summer at the earliest, and more likely the fall. That means there’s still plenty of road ahead. The danger right now is that Bitcoin slips and makes a push down toward the $50,000 level in short order. That move can happen faster than most people expect.
A Counter Trend Move Is Coming.
Here’s the part I want to be clear about, because I don’t want this to read as pure doom. Between now and whenever the four-year cycle low actually forms, I’m convinced we’re going to see a big, meaningful counter trend move develop. It’s how these cycles work.
If equities push through to the upside, Bitcoin has a real shot at a move back toward the $86,000 to $90,000 area. That would be the counter trend move. First you’d want to see a reclaim of $71,500 on the weekly, which would be a pretty meaningful signal that the first phase of this bear market has ended and a new intermediate move higher has begun.
But here’s the thing about counter trend moves in bear markets. You have to wait for them to develop. You can’t front-run them. Trying to pick the bottom in a declining market is the same mistake as shorting parabolic spikes in a bull market. It rarely works, and even when it does, it builds bad habits.
Two Scenarios.
Scenario one: $65,000 holds, equities push through, and Bitcoin reclaims $71,500 on the weekly. That’s the green light. Sentiment shifts, exposure comes back, and the path toward $80,000 opens up, with $86,000 to $88,000 as the fuller target for that counter trend move.
Scenario two: we get one more flush lower, down to the low $50,000 range. That’s where I’d actually want to get more aggressive, even in a bear market. A move to those levels in the near term would be a significant opportunity to start accumulating for the longer-term hold. Even if that level eventually gets retested toward the end of the four-year cycle, you’re getting positioned at very attractive prices.
One thing worth doing while you wait: get your limit buy orders in place. If we do get that flush down to the low $50,000s, it can happen fast. Having your orders sitting there means you don’t have to be glued to the screen to get filled. The market doesn’t always give you time to react, but it does give you time to prepare.
Bottom Line
We’re still in the grips of a bear market decline from the January high. Nothing has changed that picture structurally. The next meaningful signal is whether the S&P 500 holds its line or breaks lower, and whether Bitcoin can clear $72,000 on the weekly with conviction.
Until one of those scenarios plays out clearly, patience remains the right call. The market rewards those who wait for good setups. It punishes those who try to force trades in murky conditions. Right now, conditions are murky. Let the price action evolve, stay protected, and keep your powder dry for when the real opportunity shows up.
Thanks for reading.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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