Bitcoin Is Crawling While Stocks Soar. Here's Why That Matters
Bitcoin Roadmap
Bitcoin is slowly grinding higher. The kind of move that has people convinced the bear market is over and the next big leg is just around the corner.
I get it. The S&P 500 has blasted through all-time highs. The NASDAQ is on a tear. Semiconductors look like they’re going parabolic. The natural conclusion is that Bitcoin has to follow.
That conclusion deserves a closer look.
The Relative Performance Problem
Bitcoin is up around 34% off its recent lows. On the surface, that sounds healthy. By Bitcoin’s own historical standards of volatility and momentum, it’s actually pretty weak.
Compare it to what the NASDAQ has done over the same window. Compare it to semiconductors, which are going almost vertical right now. Bitcoin remains roughly 36% off its all-time highs while equities are printing fresh records.
This is the question nobody pushing the bullish case wants to answer: if Bitcoin was going to follow stocks, why hasn’t it already? It’s had plenty of time.
Where the Attention Actually Is
Bitcoin dominance is climbing back up, well above where it was a month ago. That tells you nobody cares about altcoins right now.
It also tells you where the speculative energy is going. It’s flowing into AI names, semiconductors, and the Mag 7. Bitcoin is catching some scraps of that risk-on appetite. The rest of crypto is getting starved.
If you’re hoping for an altcoin season, the data isn’t there yet.
The Four-Year Cycle Picture
Everything Bitcoin is doing right now fits the script of a bear market phase inside the four-year cycle. Price remains below a declining 10-month moving average. The downtrend is still in place. The bounce off the lows looks more like a counter-trend move than a fresh impulse higher.
I keep hearing the “this time is different” argument. Maybe. But until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that key level, the default assumption has to be that we’re still in the declining phase.
The bear market is now into its seventh month. Historically, these run 10 to 12 months. As Bitcoin matures, seven, eight, or nine months might be enough. But if history rhymes, we could be one solid decline away from a real cycle low.
What a Normal Setup Would Look Like
Ideally, Bitcoin grinds up a bit more, pushes toward $85,000, forms a local high, then rolls over. That would build a clean lower high and confirm the downtrend is intact.
If that plays out, a move back into the high $60,000s becomes the next focus. That’s where the picture gets interesting from an accumulation standpoint.
Two scenarios from there:
Scenario one: Price retests the prior low zone, holds, and forms a base. That’s the more bullish reading. The bear market low for price would already be behind us.
Scenario two: That low breaks, and we get the more traditional four-year cycle decline into the low $50,000s. Last bear market saw a 77% drawdown. The one before, 86%. Diminishing returns mean each cycle’s decline is smaller. A 60% to 65% total drawdown would fit that pattern.
Why Equities Could Be the Catalyst
The equity market doesn’t seem to care about elevated crude oil prices or unresolved geopolitical tension in the Middle East. That can’t last forever.
If equities pull back over a few months, Bitcoin gets caught in that broader risk-off shift. That’s how the bear market low could finally form, with sentiment fully crushed across all risk assets at the same time.
Bitcoin already peaked well before equities. It’s been weak for much longer. When the broader market eventually reprices, Bitcoin might not need to fall much further to find its low. It could even bottom before equities do.
The Bigger Picture
Sentiment is creeping back toward neutral. Some people are talking openly about the bear market being over. That’s how counter-trend moves work. They generate enough enthusiasm to make people think the dominant trend has changed, right before that dominant trend reasserts itself.
That said, I’m always open to changing my view once the downtrend actually reverses into an uptrend and the last local high gets broken. When the structure changes, I change with it. I’m currently holding a 6% allocation in crypto in case I’m wrong, which keeps me exposed if Bitcoin surprises to the upside without overcommitting to a thesis that hasn’t been confirmed yet.
For now, patience is the play. Limit orders stay placed at the levels where I actually want to add. The biggest gains in the next cycle come from being positioned right when most people have finally given up.
Thanks for reading!
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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