Bitcoin has been grinding higher through July, and that slow climb is enough to get some people excited again. I understand the pull. After a long stretch of nothing, any green feels like the turn. But the truth is there is still a lot of work to do before Bitcoin can break out of its bear market trend.
So let me walk through what I am actually seeing, and why I am not getting carried away by this move.
Equities Wobble, Bitcoin Stays Steady
The S&P 500 has fully recovered this week and is now up 0.7%, led by a strong bounce in the semiconductor sector. That kind of strength should give Bitcoin a tailwind. Instead, Bitcoin is just grinding up to around $66,000, the upper part of its recent range, still nowhere near its own highs. When equities push and Bitcoin only creeps, that gap is the tell. It shows you the buying interest here is thin.
The other side of this is timing. If stocks roll over into a real drop after this recovery, Bitcoin will not escape that pressure. The support under crypto right now is general risk appetite, not fresh demand for Bitcoin itself.
What the Weekly Chart Is Saying
The structure is still declining. Lower highs, lower lows, price well below the key moving averages. By every measure I follow, this is a bear market, and there is no debate about that.
The push toward the top of the range is the first sign that a counter trend bounce may be trying to build. But the problem is clear once you zoom out.
There is a lot of overhead resistance stacked across multiple timeframes, and price has to work through all of it:
Daily: the 200 day moving average is dropping toward $70,000 in the coming weeks. That is the first wall.
Monthly: the 10 month moving average near $77,500 is the real structural line.
Weekly: the 50 week moving average sits higher still, around $85,400.
That is three separate timeframes all pointing the same way, and each one is a level bulls have to reclaim and hold, not just tag. In 2018, Bitcoin ran hard toward its 200 day average before rolling over again. A move like that would feel like a new bull run. It would most likely be a lower high.
How I Am Thinking About Entries
For long term holders willing to look past the rest of the decline, the low $60,000s are interesting for long term adds. The low $50,000s are where I would step in more seriously. We could see a brief breach below that on a capitulation move, and if we do, long term buyers just take it.
I am waiting for one of three things before I get to a full allocation:
Lower prices that reset the range. A move down that flushes out weak hands and offers better entries.
The Q4 window drawing closer. This is where the timing for the four year cycle low lines up.
A structural reclaim of the 10 month average near $77,500. That would tell me the trend is trying to turn rather than just bounce.
What I really want is price based capitulation, the high volume flush that has marked the end of prior bear markets. That tends to be a more reliable tell than simply running out the clock.
Mapping the Path Ahead
The base case is a cycle low forming around Q4, with October the most likely window. But that precise timing has become the consensus, and cycles rarely repeat on the nose forever. If we form a low now without real capitulation, it may just set up more chop and a deeper low later in the year, even into early next year.
The heavy damage in a bear market gets done in that final stretch, when the last believers give up. That is exactly when we want to be heavy buyers.
Keeping dry powder ready matters more right now than reaching for an upside move that has not earned trust.
The opportunity is getting closer. You do not have to force it.
Thanks for reading!
PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?
Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
🟩 Panic Drop Podcast : on your favorite streaming app