Bitcoin Cannot Catch a Bid While Tech Runs Wild. Here Is When It Ends.
Bitcoin Roadmap
We are entering the part of a Bitcoin bear market that does the most damage.
The slow grind near the end that tests the die hards, the ones who kept leaning bullish while the evidence stacked up against them.
Every bear market finishes the same way.
The last believers get worn down, their conviction finally cracks, and that usually happens right around the point things are getting ready to turn.
The Nasdaq is at all time highs, tech is going crazy, and Bitcoin cannot catch a bid at $70,000.
8 week lows while everything around it pushes higher. That alone tells you where we sit in this cycle.
Tech Is Soaking Up All the Attention
Bitcoin is not trading on its own merit right now. Tech equities are holding the whole thing together. When a risk asset cannot get a bid even as everything around it climbs, it is showing you real weakness.
Money is rotating out of crypto and into the shiny stuff: AI, semiconductors, big tech. It happens with every asset class. We saw it with gold last year when everyone was selling to buy bullion. You even had Binance making a big deal this weekend about offering stock trading around the clock. When the biggest crypto exchange leans into stocks, that tells you exactly where the interest is. It is not in crypto. None of this is new, and none of it is surprising.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
The weekly chart is in a clear downtrend, and price has closed below the 10 week moving average again.
The monthly is where the real story sits. The 10 month moving average is declining around $83,000, and Bitcoin keeps closing below it. Price below a falling 10 month average is not where bull markets live. This is a bear market, plainly stated.
Do Not Trust the Bounce
Here is the trap waiting for everyone. A bounce off the next low will feel incredible. It always does. It pulls people right back in. And if you buy into that emotion near the top of a counter trend move, you end up buying high in the range and selling low when it rolls over.
A sharp rally does not mean the bear market is finished. In a downtrend, the rallies are the bait. Treat them that way.
I Followed the Plan
In my last update I told you I had orders sitting at $75,000 and $72,000. Those filled. I bought exactly where I said I would, and I am glad I did not chase anything higher.
Now my eyes are on the next level around $65,000. The risk reward starts looking attractive down there. I expect price could briefly slip below that on a flush, and I am fine with that. Any position I add at those levels could sit underwater for a while. I am buying for the next bull market, not the next week.
This is not about getting greedy and waiting for some perfect bottom that may never print. It is about adding in pieces at levels that make sense and keeping cash ready for lower.
Defense First
The declining phase is not done. I think we drift lower over the coming months and eventually carve out the 4-year cycle low later this year. There will be sharp counter trend rallies along the way, and they will be tempting.
If you go all in now, you have nothing left for a deeper drop.
So keep dry powder, add in pieces and you do not have to force it.
Thanks for reading!
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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$50K is not out of the question imo