Bear Market Plan
We’re witnessing something unusual in recent weeks: the market is down 17% from its peak, since mid February. This week had the largest losses since 2020. It doesn’t feel like a normal dip—it seems like a full bear market that’s already in play.
The pace and depth here tell me this isn’t just some correction followed by a V-shape recovery. What we’re dealing with feels like something that plays out across months, not days. The path forward is going to be bumpy, volatile, and tough to time with precision.
Oversold? Yes. But Not a Green Light.
Plenty of traders are pulling up RSI and other metrics, thinking they’ve found the bottom. I’m not saying the markets can’t bounce from here, but that logic works in different conditions. In bull markets, price loves to rebound off those technical readings. In bear markets, those tools stay pinned low for longer than most expect. Short-term rallies are sharp, fast, and misleading. They shake out traders and reset emotions—only to fail again.
And it’s not just price action. The earnings outlook is unclear and the economy is barely hanging in there under this pressure.
Then throw policy in the mix. Tariffs, rate moves, political moves—it’s all playing out in a way that makes planning almost impossible. Business leaders don’t know what to expect. One week the tax hits, the next it’s reduced. That’s no way to operate if you’re managing long-term capital.
And that’s the point: capital is getting cautious.
If earnings start declining and inflation stays sticky, you’ve got the setup for deeper losses.
So What Now For The Portfolio?
Stocks
I stay invested through drawdowns, even in bear markets, because I’m not selling into panic.
When markets drop, great companies often get dragged down with the rest, creating a rare chance to buy at a discount. Stocks of high-quality businesses, with strong fundamentals like consistent earnings, solid balance sheets, and competitive advantages, can become undervalued during these periods.
This is when you can pick up shares of businesses you believe in at prices far below their intrinsic value, setting yourself up for significant gains when the market eventually recovers.
I’d rather accumulate these undervalued stocks when prices are depressed than try to time perfect entries.
The value of a stock isn’t just its current price—it’s the underlying business’s ability to generate profits and grow over time. Short-term noise, like tariff fears or rate hikes, fades, but the long-term conviction in a company’s value pays off.
History shows this: during the 2020 bear market, stocks like Apple and Microsoft dropped sharply but doubled in value within a couple of years as their fundamentals remained strong.
It’s part of the game—you either accept that and focus on the value you’re getting, or you keep getting shaken out by temporary volatility.
Crypto
Different rules apply here. I don’t hold crypto during broader downturns. It’s too volatile—70%+ declines are standard, not rare.
I would give Bitcoin a shot at decoupling, but I’m not betting on that ahead of time. Historically, it behaves like a high-beta asset. When markets get stressed, it gets sold hard—quickly.
That’s why I now sold 50% of my Bitcoin position and hold no altcoin position anymore.
I’d rather protect my portfolio from another crypto bear market than stay in the market for a potential 80% drop that could wipe out gains from the early entry.
Instead, I will be waiting on the sidelines for clearer signs of a trend reversal—like a sustained break above key resistance levels or a shift in market sentiment—before I consider re-entering with a stronger position.
Thanks for reading!
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi