Are We Approaching Peak Euphoria? Key Signals Across Major Markets

Bitcoin Roadmap

Oct 19, 2025

We’re seeing some big movements across multiple markets right now, and I want to walk through what’s happening with the S&P 500, precious metals, and Bitcoin. The patterns emerging could signal important shifts in the months ahead.

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S&P 500: At a Critical Juncture

Looking at where the SPX sits now, we’ve just witnessed a remarkable run. The last high came 26 weeks after the ‘most hated rally’ began back in April, all without any meaningful pullbacks along the way. That’s an extraordinarily long stretch, and it raises an important question: are we finally going to see a decline, or is this going to turn into something more dramatic?

If we see a proper decline from here, it would make perfect sense at this stage. The recent drop when the China tariff news came out could be the catalyst we needed to start this move lower. The SPX is still below the declining 10 day moving average, and if we’re truly in a declining phase, we should see multiple rejections at that level.

What would be healthy here is an orderly two to four week decline. We’re already about one week off that high, so another two or three weeks down toward the 6200 to 6400 area would reset sentiment nicely. That kind of move would shake out some of the excess, reduce leverage in the system, and allow sentiment to cool off. More importantly, it would give us confidence that we could see another strong push into early 2026.

The alternative scenario is less orderly but entirely possible given the current environment. If the market recovers here and pushes to another all time high, we’d be looking at one very long extended move without the normal interruption we’d expect. That would likely represent a final surge, probably peaking around December or even stretching into January or February. That would fit the classic definition of a blow off move.

Precious Metals: Signs of Exhaustion

Now let’s talk about precious metals, which have been the standout performer this year.

This has been a phenomenal run. Since basically 2023, and especially from the breakout around April 2024, these moves haven’t given us much trouble. The biggest drawdown has been maybe 10%, which for such a historically volatile asset has made it easy to stay in the position.

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But I think we’re getting very close to some type of peak now.

The signs are everywhere. Gold is in the Wall Street Journal daily. I’m seeing it covered extensively on social media. There are images of long lines at gold bullion and jewelry stores with people buying and selling. Search interest is through the roof. When you start seeing that level of public interest, you know you’re near the end of something.

From a technical standpoint, we’ve just gone vertical. Looking at the recent move, we’ve had nine consecutive weeks up. We’ve simply never seen this before.

Managing Precious Metals Positions

Here’s what I’m doing personally, though I’m not changing my portfolio allocation.

Knowing that I may have to experience a 15% to 20% decline or a drawdown over the next six months, that’s acceptable for a longer term hold in the portfolio. For leveraged positions though, I think this is the time to be taking money off the table.

Looking at the monthly chart, it’s just vertical. There are very few red candles. Nobody knows exactly when this run will end, but it’s clearly extended and overdue for a blow off style correction.

If metals represent a significant portion of your portfolio, this is where you want to start taking some profit. If you’re in options, futures, or leveraged up in any way, you should be very happy with the gains you’ve probably experienced, and it makes sense to lock some of that in.

Again, I’m not changing my portfolio allocations, but I am aware a decline is likely in the making. I analyzed the long term cycles of gold and found the length is typically 8 years. We’re about 36 months into the 8 year cycle now, which means there’s still substantial room for upside ahead.

Bitcoin: A Confusing Picture

Bitcoin has me a bit concerned right now because the structure has become unclear.

My view was that a new uptrend had started, which shaped up to be the beginning of the final leg higher of the 4 year cycle. But what we’re seeing now is hard to ignore. Instead, Bitcoin made a lower low, possibly confirming a downtrend.

The reason I don’t want to cut all positions is because this cycle has given us many false signals. Those traps turned out to be bear traps that led to strong moves higher.

What concerns me is how deep we are in the 4 year cycle at month 35. That’s right in the historical timing band where Bitcoin typically peaks. We also have what looks like a distribution pattern, with a final thrust to a slight all time high before breaking down.

But I also don’t want to exit hastily when we’ve seen similar patterns earlier in this cycle that ultimately resolved to the upside.

So yes, I’m adjusting my expectations a bit after this move to all time high. But I’m willing to give this current setup some room, given where we stand in the 4 year cycle and the fact that I think equity markets still have more upside ahead.

I’ll watch what develops, but my patience will run thin if Bitcoin moves higher, makes a lower high, and rolls over again. If we get that kind of rollover in the November timeframe, I think it would confirm the cycle has peaked. Especially if Bitcoin starts to break below the 50 week moving average, currently around $102,000.