April Has Punished Bitcoin Five Years in a Row. Is This Time Any Different?
Bitcoin Roadmap
The past five Aprils have been rough for Bitcoin. Not just mild pullbacks. We're talking major drawdowns, failed rallies, and liquidation events that caught people completely off guard...
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April has consistently been one of the most volatile months of the year for crypto, and this time around, the setup heading in looks just as fragile.
What April Has Actually Done to Bitcoin
Let’s look at the numbers. Out of the past 15 Aprils, 10 of them closed green. That’s a 66% win rate, which sounds decent on the surface. When April closes positively, the average return has been just under 22%. When it closes red, the average loss has been roughly 10%.
But here’s an important side note: even in the Aprils that ended positive, Bitcoin still dropped an average of about 4.5% from the monthly open before recovering. In the negative Aprils, the average drawdown from open to low was closer to 18.5%.
That’s the part people forget. April tends to flush first, sometimes violently, before deciding which direction to close.
If Bitcoin were to drop April down around 18.5% from current levels, that puts price somewhere in the low $55,000 range.
A spike into that level would actually be constructive if it happens quickly and reverses. That would look like a classic shakeout within the broader four year cycle decline.
On the flip side, if April closes green and rallies around 20% from the open, that puts Bitcoin near $80,000. That would be the upper end of the range I’ve been watching. A move like that would be a counter trend rally within the downtrend, not a bull market resumption.
The S&P 500 Is in a Downtrend Too
This is the part that makes everything harder for Bitcoin.
The S&P 500 is now trading below the 200 day simple moving average, and the shorter term moving averages are crossing below it as well. If we see a rally back into those declining averages followed by a rejection, that would be a very bearish signal for equities.
In that scenario, the S&P could be looking at targets in the 5,200 to 5,400 area. And I can’t see Bitcoin doing well if equities are falling to those levels. The two remain correlated on the downside, and that correlation tends to strengthen during risk off periods.
Best Case Scenario: Boring Is Good
Here’s the honest assessment. The best case scenario for Bitcoin over the next couple of months is sideways. A range between roughly $55,000 on the downside and just under $80,000 on the upside.
That kind of action wouldn’t be exciting. But it would allow the market to build a proper base, reset sentiment, and create the conditions for the next meaningful move.
If Bitcoin can hold a range like that through April and May, it would actually be a very constructive signal for the longer term. It would suggest the market is absorbing the selling pressure and preparing for the next phase of the four year cycle.
Staying Prepared, Not Reactive
April has a history of catching people off guard. The beginning of the month in particular tends to produce sharp, unexpected moves. The last five years have shown us that repeatedly.
This isn’t the time to force trades or chase moves. It’s a time to have your levels set, your risk defined, and your patience intact. If we get that flush to the downside, I want to be ready with limit orders already in place. If we get a counter trend rally to $80,000, I want to know exactly where I’m taking profits.
The market doesn’t care about our opinions or our timelines. It does what it does. Our job is to be prepared for the most likely outcomes and manage risk accordingly.
Thanks for reading.
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Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
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