2024 Review and 2025 Predictions
This year was a mixed bag for my investment portfolio. While some assets delivered exceptional returns, others fell short of expectations. In this post, I’ll highlighting both the high achievers and the underperformers. I’ll also discuss the key lessons learned over the year and how they’re shaping my strategy for 2025. Let’s start with the underperformers!
Underperforming Stocks and Their Future
Here’s a look at some of the stocks that didn’t perform well this year and what I plan to do with them:
Estee Lauder (EL) has been one of the hardest-hit, down over 60% since before the pandemic. This decline stems largely from a sharp drop in business from China, which makes up 40% of their revenue, along with supply chain problems. While a slight recovery in Chinese markets might provide some relief, my long-term confidence in China remains low. My plan is to wait for a stronger rebound and sell the entire position.
Nike (NKE) also had a tough year, falling 23%. The drop is tied to missteps under its former CEO, Donna Hu, who cut ties with distributors, leading to a loss in market share and weakened innovation. However, with the new CEO,Elliot Hill, there’s a chance for a turnaround. For now, I’m holding my position but not adding more.
Celsius Holdings (CELH) saw a 30% decline this year, though this looks to be part of a broader slowdown in the energy drink market rather than a company-specific issue. I’m confident this is temporary, so I’m holding.
Elevance Health (ELV) is down 14%, which isn’t surprising given the usual election-year pressure on healthcare stocks. This is temporary, and I’m optimistic about a rebound in 2025, so I’m holding this one for the long term.
Lastly, LVMH (LVMUY) had a 12% drop, driven by weaker luxury goods demand, particularly in China, which accounts for 30% of their sales. Despite this, the company continues to grow its revenue and profits. I view this as a short-term issue and remain confident in its fundamentals.
Outperforming Assets
Palantir (PLTR) was the best performing asset in my portfolio this year, rising over 360% thanks to the ongoing AI hype.
Bitcoin also had a great year, climbing 120%, while my early position in Solana (SOL) added to the gains with its role as the memecoin hub.
Additionally, re-allocating funds from underperforming assets into altcoins like SOL, SUI and XRP paid off.
Biggest Disappointment
Ethereum (ETH) was my biggest disappointment this year. While it managed to rise 50%, it underperformed compared to other majors like BTC and SOL. Still, I view this as a potential opportunity for 2025. Historically, ETH tend to outperform Bitcoin in the first quarter so I’ve kept my allocation as it is. That said, I continue to believe Solana will outperform ETH, which is why Solana remains a larger position in my portfolio.
Lessons Learned in 2024
I underestimated the impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF narrative. Thankfully, I reacted quickly to this mistake and re-entered the market in time to catch most of the 2024 gains.
A sharp correction in altcoins in March and April was another learning moment. It made me realize once again that most altcoins will eventually trade to zero, so it’s important to monitor them weekly and sell if they lose strength. By improving my selection process, I minimized losses and positioned the portfolio more effectively in the 2nd half of the year.
There’s a reason Fartcoin surged to $1.2 billion and broke through to the mainstream media: because it’s madness. Investors with decades of experience watched their portfolios underperform compared to a meme coin. My feed was flooded with frustration, which gave even more spotlight to the meme. The lesson here is: money goes where attention is.
2025 Predictions
And now the fun part. I’m going to give bold predictions that are probably not going to play out. Here we go:
The S&P500 will end the year positive (between 10% to 15%), led by AI stocks again (NVDA, META, GOOGL, MSFT, PLTR, AMZN).
Healthcare and small caps will outperform the S&P500
Bitcoin will have a 30% correction in Q1 2025. The top is likely to occur in Q4 2025 reaching $180K to $200k.
There will be no approval of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025
Microstrategy’s stock will top before Bitcoin has topped.
Most altcoin from past cycles won’t see a new all time high. AI and memecoins will pump the most.
Narratives that could compete with AI next year: RWAs, DePin, DeSci and gaming).
So, do you agree? What are your predictions for 2025? Let me know in the comments below!
Thanks for reading and wishing you a happy New Year!
Written by Timothy Assi, a popular investor on eToro.
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Best of luck with your investments in 2025, Timothy!