S&P500: Keep It Simple in a Strong Trend (Free)

This is going to be a straightforward and perhaps even a boring report.

And that’s exactly how it should be. In a trending market, especially when following a trend strategy, it’s best to keep things steady, not exciting. You want to be positioned well and continue to ride that wave for as long as possible. The goal is to extract as much value from a strong trend as it develops.

The S&P 500 has seen a beautiful bull run from the low 4,000 range, and now it’s knocking on the door of 6,000. Month after month, green candles have stacked up, with only one red in sight. It’s been a textbook bull market—steady, reliable, and pushing to new heights.

Now, many investors tend to panic when their positions gain so much. They start thinking about selling, fearing the trend might end, only to find themselves struggling to buy back in at higher prices. The problem with selling during a strong market is that once you're out, it’s tough to reenter. Prices continue climbing, and the fear of buying back at the top becomes real. You don’t want to chase, and yet, being out of the market can mean missing out on huge gains.

The key lesson here is to stay in the trend and not get too clever trying to time a small dip. Sure, it might feel good if you sell and then manage to buy back lower. But it’s incredibly hard to pull off consistently. In a bull market, the better move is often to hold steady. Sure, we could see a 5% or 7% decline, but trying to perfectly time those moves usually ends in missing the bigger picture.

Looking at the weekly S&P chart, since August, the market has made up ground rapidly. We’ve seen six consecutive green weekly candles powering toward all-time highs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P break through 6,000 and potentially hit 6,200 or even 6,300 by year-end. As long as the trend is intact, there's no need to change course.

The important thing here is that we don't overcomplicate our approach. The market’s strength is evident across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. The trend is strong, and there’s no reason to doubt it or start tinkering with our positions.

Of course, if we see an extreme, parabolic move, deep into the cycle—that’s when we can start thinking about becoming more cautious. But for now, this bull market has legs, and it could continue well into next year. It’s been a strong, steady run since the lows in 2022, and these types of moves can last years.

So when the wind is steady, you don’t stop to adjust the sails. You let it carry you forward. Trying to change course too soon could slow you down. Right now, the market’s wind is at our back, so let’s stay the course and enjoy the ride.

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Written by Timothy Assi, a popular investor on eToro.

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